Thread by @karolcummins

‼️Seven Reasons Why Russia Wants to Keep Ukraine All to Itself

1. Ukraine’s natural gas pipelines

2. Little Russia

3. Eurasian Union

4. Linked History

5. Russia’s sphere of influence

6. Lots of Ukrainians still speak Russian

7. Russia feels threatened by revolutions

1. GAS Pipelines

Gas has long been an explosive issue between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow is a key supplier of gas to the European Union, accounting for about a third of the region’s imports, about half of which flows through Ukrainian pipes.

csis.org/analysis/russi…

🔑Ukraine is also a major market for Russian gas, and arguments over how much it should pay have prompted Russia to turn off the taps, disrupting supplies to the rest of Europe.

reuters.com/article/us-eu-…

🔑Closer ties between the two countries would in theory at least give Russia more secure access to the former Soviet satellite's pipeline network and the European market.

🔑Gas pipeline access

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…

Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe"of the 20c.

Hence his drive to establish a Eurasian Union: A powerful economic and political bloc made up of former Soviet states w/ RU at the center once again

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4480745.s…

2. Little Russia

Back in the days of the Russian Empire, the term “Little Russia” was commonly used for parts of modern-day Ukraine then under control of the Russian tsars.

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…

Fast-forward nearly 100 years, and Putin is still using the diminutive name. In 2009, Putin referred to Ukraine as “Little Russia” when quoting from the diaries of Anton Denikin, suggesting Moscow’s attitude toward its neighbor was little changed.

content.time.com/time/world/art…

"Ukraine" is derived from “at the edge” — in relation to Russia, of course — underlining Moscow’s view that Ukraine is no more than a vassalage.

worldview.stratfor.com/article/ukrain…

3. Eurasian Union

What is the European Economic Union?

EEU vs EU

https://twitter.com/karolcummins/status/1177698474545963013?s=21

🔑Location, location, location:

🔑Ukraine is considered a key part of the plan because of its size, historical links with Russia and its position on the EU's frontier.

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…

🔑Earlier the Ukrainian parliament approved a program to develop trade and economic relations with members of a customs union that includes Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

au.finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-i…

4. RU & UKR history is inextricably linked

From the Russian point of view, Russia & Ukraine share deep historical and cultural roots. Kyiv, the capital of modern-day Ukraine, is considered the birthplace of orthodox Christianity and Russian civilization.

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…

🔑Kyiv was the center of a powerful civilization called Kievan Rus, a medieval federation of eastern Slavic tribes established in the 9th century, which preceded the nation states of Russia and Ukraine.

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…

5. Russia considers UKR within its sphere of influence

The struggle between Russia and Britain for supremacy in Central Asia in the 19th century, known as the Great Game, provides some insight into Moscow’s attitude toward Ukraine in the 21st century.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/south…

🔑Russia still views regional influence as a so-called zero-sum game, hence its determination to keep Ukraine within what Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev has called Moscow's sphere of "privileged interests" — and out of the European Union’s.

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…

6. Lots of Ukrainians still speak Russian

The divisions in UKR are as much political as they are linguistic. Ukrainian is the official language & is widely spoken in the north and west of the country, where most of the pro-European protesters hail from.

washingtonpost.com/news/worldview…

7. Russia feels threatened by the “Color revolutions”

RU would like to see the current protests in the UKR brought to an end b/4 disaffected RUs get ideas about taking to the streets.

Too late!

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…

ROSE REVOLUTION

In November 2003, Georgia’s Rose Revolution led to the ouster of President Eduard Shevardnadze, who had ruled the former Soviet republic for 30 years.

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4532539.s…

ORANGE REVOLUTION

Ukraine's Orange Revolution reversed the results of a presidential election Yanukovych won.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/russi…

TULIP REVOLUTION

In early 2005, protesters took to the streets in Kyrgyzstan in what became known as the Tulip Revolution, overthrowing President Askar Akayev and his government.

carnegieendowment.org/2005/03/28/kyr…

The Kremlin has accused western countries of backing the revolutions and threatening do the same in Russia in order to steal its vast energy rescources.

It’s all about geographical location, oil & gas folks.

Russia is dependent on an oil & gas economy.

nbcnews.com/storyline/ukra…