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, 3 tweets, 2 min read
So UK officials I've spoken to a bit more downbeat than readout from Irish times. 1/ Caution weariness on briefs of a 3h private meet between @BorisJohnson and @LeoVaradkar. 2/ Absolutely clear that UK position - that its customs territory remains intact - remains. Don't see a
Commons majority otherwise. 3/ Objective is to tee up a real negotiation between @MichelBarnier & @SteveBarclay tomorrow. UK side continues to believe that @EU_Commission holds the key. "If they want to make it work they will." So both sides still holding to core principles ENDS
Maybe no one wants to be the one to call time? Whoever does will lose points in the silly blame game
On the other hand... perusals one more run round the course before the Council?
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
As I say in earlier thread, opposition from TF50 very much expected - even by Irish side. Council believes deal doable if squint hard enough *&* if UK works on customs model on basis of initial backstop text. Important to note that Commission has a lot of leverage over Heads 1/3
Leaders need to hear if model can work and integrity of SM can be preserved. At same time, important to note that Commission will also not want to waste this opportunity to clinch a deal if it is possible & wanted by Heads of State. Senior EU official says "a deal is feasible 2/3
But a lot depends on BJ's judgement call on the customs model." 3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So where do Brexit negotiations stand & is deal likely? Lots of conflicting signals. Lots of challenges. But it seems @BorisJohnson & @LeoVaradkar have basically decided they want to get it done. Thread following chats with senior UK, EU & Irish officials over the weekend 1/
There's competing views between UK & Irish sides as to why there's now momentum for a deal. Senior UK sources say Irish have moved - away from principles to their actual bottom lines. Senior Irish sources say it's because BJ has conceded on customs & consent. The different 2/
interpretations may be about both sides positioning themselves to sell a deal. Both worth exploring. Senior UK sources argue Dublin's absolute bottom line is now to ensure “tariffs are off table on the north-south border for all time”. This is where talk of a “partial” FTA has 3/
Read 25 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So strong working assumption of most (including me) is that A50 extension & elections are now almost inevitable. But what if we're all wrong? As one senior EU official says to me: "Whoever sends the letter, we need to know why we do this. That's the REAL question." However 1/4
There is no way for the European Council to mandate an election (or a referendum). And the way an election comes about - or indeed, if one does even come about - is incredibly uncertain. Polling numbers look terrible for Labour & Lib Dems. They are getting cold feet 2/4
At same time, they can't agree on caretaker PM to head a National Unity Govt - @jeremycorbyn wants it; no one wants Corbyn. Could we be stuck? No elections? No NU Govt? Just a @BorisJohnson zombie Govt with absolutely nowhere to go or turn? 3/4
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Filomena Rocha
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Georgios Konstantinou
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Reading through @OtherProfGreen summary of the 9th August #UK event, the similarities to the 25th August 2018 #Australian separation event across the #NEM are very interesting to observe.
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Charles Lister
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This piece is extraordinary & cunningly misleading.

- All "senior" #UK officials he cites have been long-time apologists for #Assad & invited guests in #Damascus.

- The author makes so many false claims I lost count & he never once acknowledges *any* violent act by the regime.
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(1) The idea that the #Assad regime has become “indispensable” to #Turkey & “the Kurds” (whatever that means) is palpably ridiculous. #Russia maybe, not #Damascus.

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David M. Herszenhorn
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Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
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Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
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- Canada: 15.1%
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The next 10 years could result in the below:
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- South Korea (5%)
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#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So #BorisJohnson and friends are not signed up to €40bn-€60bn #BrexitBill - as we reported

Does that matter? Are they right to be cautious? Where are May/Davis/DexEU on this? Where are the EU? 1/Thread

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First the bill.

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