Thread by @cldesira

Thread: EU Settlement Scheme Statistics - September

Yes, it’s that time of the month again already. With Halloween 2019 fast approaching the number of applications made in one month reached a record high of 520,600.

September also saw our second officially recorded refusal.

The number of applications received in September increased by 221,600 on August numbers, it’s likely that October will also see that upward tread continuing.

The @ukhomeoffice continues their immense efforts to process as many applications as quickly as possible, seeing a record monthly high of 373,600 applications concluded in September.

@ukhomeoffice But as hard as they are working, September sees the number of application yet to be decided rise significantly. There are now 335,700 applications awaiting a decision.

@ukhomeoffice Without further information from the Home Office it’s hard to conclude if that’s simply a result of the spike in applications or whether it is the start of a backlog of undecided cases. Past form indicates that they do not work well with backlogs, so let’s hope for the former.

@ukhomeoffice The number of people receiving settled status, as compared to pre-settled status, in Septmeber has plateaued. With 57% receiving the latter and 43% the former, exactly the same as in August. The number of people receiving ‘other outcomes’ dropped 1% to 0.6%.

@ukhomeoffice Looking at the total grants of settled and pre-settled status, the figures show a different story.

The grants of settled status continue to drop, 61% from 62%, and pre-settled status increases 38% from 37%.

@ukhomeoffice say that's in-line with their (unpublished) predictions

@ukhomeoffice The total applications received by nationality show some interesting and some worrying data.

For example, Polish nationals have made the most applications, but the figure is worryingly low as compared to the number predicted to be residing in the UK.

@ukhomeoffice We still don’t know the nationalities of non-EU family members applying under the scheme, nor other useful information.

For example, those EU citizens who are also holding non-EU citizenship (for instance, Dutch/Somalis) which would be useful to focus communication campaigns.

@ukhomeoffice Some other initial thoughts:

- The increasing number of undecided cases may be a worry and does not correspond with the published processing timescales.

@ukhomeoffice - There are explanations why some applications longer than others, but many don’t fall under those caveats and so the applicant is often left worried that something might be wrong.

@ukhomeoffice - Oxford University’s Migration Observatory (bit.ly/35jrKX7) estimated that around 69% of EU citizens in the UK have been living here for over five years, but instead less and less are being granted settled status.

@ukhomeoffice - This continues to be a worrying stat and something to watch, pre-settled status remains an inferior status and those that are eligible for settled status should ensure that they fight for that status.

@ukhomeoffice - Many find the application process straightforward and get the status they deserve, which is a reflection of the hard work of everyone. But there are those that don’t and these stats might give us an indication of the problems. More detailed statistics would be most welcome.

@ukhomeoffice - Particularly, as we all accept, no similar scheme has ever reached 100% take-up and there will be many who don’t apply. In absence of a declaratory scheme, more detailed statistics may help us target where the help is most needed so to reduce that number as much as possible.