I hate to be the thrower of cold water but when it comes to new UK proposals, whatever they might be, if PM moves towards EU position on customs, he’s likely to lose most/all DUP +ERG support. New deal must be agreed not only by PM + EU but also by majority of MPs /1
EU diplomats also sceptical Boris Johnson would want to be seen to be ‘conceding’ to EU ahead of elex, with Brexit Party breathing down his neck. EU fear is the PM might enter intensive negotiations, get a concession from EU and then pull out.. /2
Putting EU concession in back pocket - for electoral advantage at home - but leaving EU with no deal and having just played a major card .. Such is the level of mistrust between the two sides /3
That said, EU insiders remark that Boris Johnson’s style is at least clearer than that of predecessor TMay who kept changing position. First declaring UK would have distant relationship to EU, then favouring a customsunion. Difficult to negotiate with moving target, they say /4
Hopes not high that new Brexit deal is just around the corner but today - for those who want a deal - there is light in the tunnel. Unlikely to be fully sorted this month but during extension ..? /5
