As expected, the far-right populist Law and Justice government has won reelection in Poland today.
Democracy in perhaps the biggest success stories in the post-communist world is now in acute danger. And it has wide implications beyond Poland's borders.
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Democracy in perhaps the biggest success stories in the post-communist world is now in acute danger. And it has wide implications beyond Poland's borders.
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According to early exit polls, PiS won about 44% of the vote.
Its largest competitor, the Civic Coalition, got 27%, the left 12%, and the right-wing Kukiz movement 10%.
Its largest competitor, the Civic Coalition, got 27%, the left 12%, and the right-wing Kukiz movement 10%.
Poland has a system of proportional representation, calculated within relatively small districts. (For buffs: it uses D'Hondt.)
This gives the largest party a sizable bonus in parliament. So though PiS only got a plurality of the vote, it will have a majority in the Sejm.
This gives the largest party a sizable bonus in parliament. So though PiS only got a plurality of the vote, it will have a majority in the Sejm.
Though PiS did not win a majority of the vote, this is a pretty resounding victory. The party got 6% more than in 2015. Its closest competition, the Civic Coalition, got 5% less.
Oh, yes. And this is what the regional map of Poland now looks like - virtually all blue...
Oh, yes. And this is what the regional map of Poland now looks like - virtually all blue...
Three takeaways:
1) This is terrible news for Polish democracy.
PiS has mounted a strong attack on the independence of the judiciary, civil society institutions, and state media.
Its leaders have promised even more radical reforms if reelected.
This is a red alert.
1) This is terrible news for Polish democracy.
PiS has mounted a strong attack on the independence of the judiciary, civil society institutions, and state media.
Its leaders have promised even more radical reforms if reelected.
This is a red alert.
Poland has to hold elections for its largely ceremonial President by August 2020.
That may be the very last opportunity for the opposition to gain some kind of veto power. But if PiS retains consolidated control through 2023, Warsaw may soon resemble Budapest.
Not good at all.
That may be the very last opportunity for the opposition to gain some kind of veto power. But if PiS retains consolidated control through 2023, Warsaw may soon resemble Budapest.
Not good at all.
2) This puts tremendous stress on international institutions.
The EU is meant to be based on fundamental values. Hungary has been blatantly violating them.
But it was easy to make excuses: That's just one country! And it's pretty small, so it doesn't have that much influence!
The EU is meant to be based on fundamental values. Hungary has been blatantly violating them.
But it was easy to make excuses: That's just one country! And it's pretty small, so it doesn't have that much influence!
Well, Hungary is no longer an aberration.
And Poland is a much bigger country. Its voice within the EU counts a lot.
So why, as a citizen of a full democracy, should I share my sovereignty with a semi-authoritarian government in Warsaw?
There's no good answer to that.
And Poland is a much bigger country. Its voice within the EU counts a lot.
So why, as a citizen of a full democracy, should I share my sovereignty with a semi-authoritarian government in Warsaw?
There's no good answer to that.
3) Stability of democracy elsewhere
Until recently, most political scientists believed that democracy in a large range of countries was consolidated: we could be sure it would persist for the foreseeable future.
Most regional experts counted Poland among them. They were wrong.
Until recently, most political scientists believed that democracy in a large range of countries was consolidated: we could be sure it would persist for the foreseeable future.
Most regional experts counted Poland among them. They were wrong.
This should update our priors about the stability of democracy in other countries:
If a supposedly consolidated democracy in Poland can come under mortal stress, we shouldn't exclude the possibility that the same might happen in, say, Italy.
If a supposedly consolidated democracy in Poland can come under mortal stress, we shouldn't exclude the possibility that the same might happen in, say, Italy.
