In the media frenzy of “Will there/won’t there be a new #Brexit deal this week?” things are likely to become clearer on Wednesday .. the eve of the EU leaders summit. In the meantime there’s lots of smoke, mirrors and second-guessing going on /1
Some in EU I’ve spoken to comment on how ‘upbeat’ key player Ireland seems to be. Which should, logically be an indication that a new deal is on track, right? Except others in the EU question Dublin’s motives: upbeat for real or to avoid being labelled the Nay-sayers, they ask /2
European Commission assures that the negotiations are being carried out in good faith on both sides. Clearly there’s political will to get this deal done once and for all. Little appetite for endless extensions on either side BUT /3
There’s a lot of second-guessing going on in EU as to Boris Johnson’s motives: How far will he go (concede) to get a deal? How will he play the EU leaders summit? Could he go to the brink in negotiations but then hold back, blaming EU for inflexibility? Does he even know yet?? /4
Here in Berlin where I’ve been in background meetings - as elsewhere in EU - idea that Brexit negotiations will take place amongst EU leaders at summit is dismissed. “Leaders need something concrete to discuss: a possible Brexit extension maybe, not customs technicalities” /5
One diplomat joked that technocrats in negotions will look down their nose and say the customs discussions are too complicated for politicians to grasp anyhow BUT what is very clear is EU hoping pressure on the PM these last days before summit will encourage him to concede more/6
Boris Johnson is the one who promised a deal by this week - not EU. Boris Johnson is the one refusing to ask for a new Brexit extension if he doesn’t get a deal. With time running out, EU sources are all hoping he will pivot to pre-prepared (EU preferred) customs option: /7
Essentially keeping Northern Ireland in the EU customs union after Brexit. This is where the EU is hoping Boris Johnson will head. Even though he’s rejected the idea before. But for now at least EU insists the PMs proposals on customs aren’t workable. /8
It’s an either/or this week. Hard to see how the two meet in the middle before Thursday. If can’t reach agreement, some diplomats suggest both sides could find a form of words to indicate publicly at summit that they feel they’re on a path to a deal.. just not there yet. /9
EU legal Brexit deadline is 31 October so negotiations could easily resume after summit from Brussels perspective. There’s talk of poss emergency Brexit summit later in month. But first all EU eyes would be on UK to see what happens with Benn Act and request for new extension /10
