The agreement just achieved between EU and UK about Brexit follows mainly an old EU proposal to have a border at sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This was strongly rejected then by the UK Government as it split the UK sacrossant unity. 1/n
Johnson did not invent this solution to get rid of the backstop, it was on offer long before the WA and that is why the EU reopened the negotiations. In spite of it, the Tory press is praising Johnson for accepting something that they opposed in the past. Such is politics. 2/n
On substance, I have to trust Michel Barnier when he says the deal fully protects the single market. However, not knowing details, I do not understand some points: 1) How exactly the system of choosing between two different tariffs at the sea border will work, according to..3/n
...”according to the final destination of the goods being only Northern Ireland or being re-exported somewhere else”. A Committe will monitor it..2)What happens if NI Parliament rejects the system in the future (The backstop was forever)? Will Brexit negotiations restart or.. 4/n
...or the Republic of Ireland will have to build a physical border with Northern Ireland to protect the single market?There is still no clarity on this.The bet is that, with the strength of Sinn Féin in NI and the minority status of unionist the refusal will never happen...5/n
The sad part of all this is that it appears that Brexit is indeed going to happen. Either now ( with ERG turning and the expelled Tory MPs and a few Labour MPs voting for it) or after new elections, Johnson will be able to get it through. 6/6
The only (hélas, unlikely) possibility of Brexit not happening would be for the UK Parliament to reject the deal, and not approving new elections but a new referendum with a choice between this deal or remain.
