Thread by @uk_domain_names

Understanding where we are with Brexit...
1. The deadline to leave the EU remains 31 October 2019 at 11pm
2. Boris Johnson has requested an Article 50 extension. If the EU agree and Parliament does too, that will move the Brexit deadline to whatever the new date ends up being

3. As soon as we pass the deadline to leave, we're out. End of the Article 50 process. Can't delay Brexit again, can't stay in the EU.
4. As soon as we leave, all our EU treaties lapse
5. If there's a deal with a transition period, the *effect* of the treaties continues during it

6. That means there's a new "no deal cliff edge" at the end of the transition period, which will be December 2020 (or Dec 2021 or 2022 if we agree a transition period extension).
7. Transition period can't run past Dec 2022 in any circumstances

8. We *must* agree whatever future relationship we want with the EU before the transition period ends. If we don't have anything agreed, we crash out with no deal. Same disastrous consequences as if we were crashing out now, just delayed.

9. Future shape of our relationship isn't set in stone, but Boris Johnson says he's planning to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement. That is the weakest possible association with the EU short of no deal.

10. A FTA of the type he's thinking of means we wouldn't have to pay tariffs, but it probably won't solve:
- Non-tariff barriers (standards etc.)
- Rules of origin issues
- Services (80% of our economy)
- Frictionless borders (bye bye just-in-time manufacturing)

11. Coming back to the near future, if Boris Johnson's deal gets amended in the next few days to include the requirement to negotiate a Customs Union after Brexit, that can be stripped out again by a future vote in Parliament.

In other words, if Boris Johnson gets the GE he wants and wins a majority, he can strip out any pesky amendment to the deal that gets added this coming week, and push for his very hard Brexit instead.

12. What would be harder to get around on the other hand would be the requirement to hold a confirmatory second referendum. If Parliament passes that, then we need the cooperation of the EU to give us time (5-7 months) to hold a new referendum.

If the EU does agree to it, it's hard to see how Boris Johnson would dodge it. He might simply refuse, or quit, or try and sabotage the process some other way e.g. by making it a loaded question or choosing a form of 2nd referendum that favours Leave.

13. We can revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU at any time up until the deadline to leave. After that it's too late. We lose that emergency parachute.
14. If we do leave, we'd have to apply to join from scratch under Article 49 if we wanted back into the EU again.

I think that just about covers it. I realise it can all be very confusing if you're not used to it. Key takeaways:
- We're still very very close to Brexit right now
- All is not lost
- Remain is hanging by a fingernail but still an option
- Next few days are super-crucial