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, 4 tweets, 1 min read
It's becoming a lot simpler now.

Brexit status: Good

The timetabling motion to fast track the Withdrawal Agreement Bill was defeated.
That Bill is now in limbo awaiting gov. decision.
The meaningful vote from Saturday thus remains suspended.
With both the Meaningful Vote and the Withdrawal Bill suspended, the European Union will now actively consider the extension request.
If Europe offers an extension to January 31st we will automatically accept under the terms of the Benn Act.
Once the extension is in place the opposition will agree to the general election that the government has wanted for several weeks but was too pig-headed to ask for the extension first.
It still looks like we're on target for an election on November 28th.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
If the Tories were paying a proper strategist, they would have started from the fact they've got no majority and that the law requires an extension,
So you assume the inevitable. You're going to get an extension by law, and you've got no majority. So when do you want the election?

You choose an election date and work backwards from there. They haven't done that or the election would be in November
The time of year, and the state their government is in, the worst is the longer they leave it.
If the election starts barging into December, the weather and Christmas will fuck it all up.
But if they leave it till January the government will stagnate for another three months.
Read 4 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
It's running away from them now. They're about to lose November 28th.
After today the earliest election day will be December 5th.
And after that it's too late because all the halls are booked for Christmas.
See, they just do not think ahead. The extension is going to be useless now. The election won't come until January, and we'll need yet another extension to cover that.
Again and again I just end up mystified how they let this happen to themselves.
I mean, do none of them possess a calendar?
Read 4 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Cummings is actually talking sense to them right now, if they had the brain to see it.
The longer they leave it before an election, the worse it's going to be.
This isn't even worthy of discussion. Brexit is a ticking stunk bomb, and it is going to go off eventually.
If that happens in a minority government, the Tories will lose control of events. Then they will get an election in the middle of winter, in the middle of chaos.
Because the economy is going to react in all sorts of ways you can't foresee. Serious, Brexit is like a shitbomb waiting to go off in their face.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
As we wait for white smoke to rise in Brussels, there's lots in the Sunday papers to mull over...starting with this nugget from @ShippersUnbound about how Northern Irish security fears pushed @BorisJohnson into pinning his ears back and going for a deal... /1
@ShippersUnbound @BorisJohnson Full story linked to below (£££) but spin aside, it's interesting that NI security & stabiity fears (derided as insifor months by many hard Brexiteers) are now cited as animating factors in the need for a deal. /2

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b…
@ShippersUnbound @BorisJohnson I've always been sceptical as reg readers will know about viability of a 'no deal' - both as a useful negotiating threat but also as an actual outcome that Johnson could really contemplate. It's such a messy way to get back to the deal space we've alwasy needed to reach. /3
Read 17 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
Taking a step back at the moment, after today it is hard to see how Boris Johnson can still legitimately claim to have "just the right amount of time" to agree _and_ ratify a #Brexit deal before October 31.

Here is a short thread looking at the timeline:
/1
The first draft of the original Withdrawal Agreement was published on 28 February 2018.

The draft was finalised on 24 November 2018, after month of careful negotiations on the text.

The UK has not put forward alternative proposals for Northern Ireland yet. /2
In November 2018, the UK government lobbied the other EU27 countries for a special #EUCO to adopt the withdrawal agreement.

Main argument was that it could not wait until the December European Council, as the UK would need 4 month to get the WA through the Commons. /3
Read 6 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
EXC: If @BorisJohnson wants to make good on his threat to withhold £39bn #Brexit bill he will need to over-turn existing legal advice from AG Geoffrey Cox - who supports him. Could be awkward. 1/Thread
@BorisJohnson Just to recap, Boris opened his campaign with a big promise to re-open the linkage between the #Brexit bill and outcome in the future relationship - which @DavidDavisMP one said would be the 'row of the summer' (that lasted a day) /2
@BorisJohnson @DavidDavisMP The Boris intervention surprised some of my regular contacts in Brussels.

They felt that Boris might work up to that level of 'threat' as the rhetoric of the leadership campaign escalated.

But no, he went in two-footed, studs-up from the outset. That rattled a few cages. /3
Read 16 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what is Olly Robbins up to in Brussels, and will he be saving #Brexit any time soon? (Yes, you don't need to answer that). But here's some thoughts. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
So understand that, as I think @Mij_Europe first mentioned, the focus of meetings is on examining texts that might "entrench" whatever promises Labour get from Tories in this negotiation - and the current focus of this is in text of Withdrawal Agreement Bill. /2
@Mij_Europe It goes without saying that all this is moot if Tories and Labour cannot agree a deal. And with Labour digging in on Second Referendum requirement and Tories spooked by Brexit Party and prospects of customs union deal...it's hard (to put it kindly) to see how a deal happens/3
Read 19 tweets
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Christopher James
@ChrisJames_90
THREAD 🧵🤓

🗳 What are #Brexit Indicative Votes?

🤔 How will the process work?

💡What ideas have been tabled?

🚨 Bare with me on this one... hopefully it’s worth a couple of minutes ☕️ 🚆 🚌
On Monday, MPs approved Sir Oliver Letwin’s proposal to give control of the Commons Order Paper on Wednesday 27 March to backbench MPs so that they could hold indicative votes on alternatives to the Prime Minister’s #Brexit deal.
The decision to back ‘The Letwin Amendment’ was seen as controversial as it disapplied a Commons rule - Standing Order 14(1) - which says that the Government largely controls what business is debated in the House.
Read 25 tweets
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Brigid Fowler
@Brigid_Fowler
We all know there's uncertainty over how MPs will vote on #Brexit this week. Thought it might be handy just to flag why there's also uncertainty over exactly what & when they're voting on (nerdy procedure thread....) 1/
First, a reminder of the position in law: unless something happens in the A50 process (that is, Withdrawal Agreement [WA] is ratified or A50 period is extended), the UK by law leaves the EU on 29/3 without a Withdrawal Agreement in force. 2/
For WA to be ratified, by UK law HoC must approve it (& Political Declaration) in a motion moved by a minister under section 13 of EU (Withdrawal) Act (the #meaningfulvote due Tues 12/3); UK Parliament must also pass Withdrawal Agreement Bill (not yet introduced to Parl); ... 3/
Read 14 tweets

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