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So @BorisJohnson preferred Brexit strategy has been derailed. He's now “paused” passage of Bill through Parliament and is pondering whether to swallow short extension beyond his “do or die” deadline of 31 Oct or seek a general election. Latest Brexit piece below. Short thread 1/
Ministers were praying EU wd offer short extension of 2-4 weeks. Hopes dashed after @eucopresident tweet last night - interpreted as a “flextension” to 31 Jan. Some ministers now urging Johnson to take advantage of this flexibility to push deal through in matter of weeks 2/
But longer extension offered by EU could tip balance in @10DowningStreet over fierce debate that’s raging over early election 3/
Some BJ aides prefer a “parliament versus people” election before Brexit to another delay. They also want to fight an election against @jeremycorbyn bc they fear - as I wrote yesterday - he might be replaced as Labour leader if poll is delayed until next spring 4/
Even if Labour resists election (getting cold feet even though Corbyn personally wants one), senior Tories think they can engineer an election. Options include: 1) relying on SNP votes, who want election once 31 Oct no-deal avoided; 2) Tory MPs voting against their own Govt 5/
3) abstaining in VONC; 4) tabling a motion for an election every day until Labour relents; 5) overturn Fixed-Terms Parliaments Act. But many in Cab will urge caution about snap election. Argue 30-vote margin yesterday shows it can pass w/out major changes imposed by Parliament 6/
Indeed, it was a remarkable result for a Govt with a majority of -45. For now, I think it’s more likely BJ accepts delay & uses it to try & shepherd Bill through Parliament. But risk of pre-Brexit election are definitely rising again. Seems that's where debate is heading ENDS
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