OK so, some thoughts on the excellent @EmmanuelMacron long interview transcript in @TheEconomist by @PedderSophie. Arguably it demonstrates the best of Macron – & the worst. It is difficult to imagine any other world leader speaking so deeply and so openly on so many questions 1/
But, as others have argued (@FHeisbourg) he sometimes talks like an academic or a commentator, rather than an important political actor whose words & tone of voice can disrupt the debate that he seeks – and therefore make his own success less likely 2/
Suggests Macron is brilliant man but clumsy politician? He did same thing domestically recently when talking about islam & immigration. Stating that Nato is “brain dead” may be true but it has produced heat & headlines & circle wagons, rather than stategic re-think he demands 3/
That said, Macron’s arguments are fascinating because they are so joined-up. His comments about “European sovereignty” – the need for EU to establish & act upon a new form of common sovereignty, at once economic, military & strategic - is not new 4/
But he has never before made arguments so clearly and comprehensively. Thus, all Macron decisions, attitudes & foibles we know about – not wanting to delay Brexit forever; wanting a proper EU defence policy; delaying Balkan accession talks; cosying up to Putin – are presented 5/
as part of one strategic vision. The European Union must abandon its obsession with the free market & become a political & strategic player with one voice and one purpose, first in its own “neigbourhood” and then in the world 6/
“…pooling more in order to move towards a system that is somehow looser, softer, less & less strategic, I’m not in favour of that. I’m in favour of making things more effective, deciding more quickly, more clearly, changing the dogma & ideology that drive us collectively today.”
Although he doesn’t quite say so, he implies that the UK will not accept this approach and is therefore best out of the EU (but associated with the EU militarily which may be the beginning of a long road back to membership) 7/
Delaying Balkan accession is not a caprice, he suggests, it is thinking seriously & strategically about how to make such an unwieldy construction as the EU work in the 21st Century 8/
Cosying up to Putin is part of a long game to persuade Russia – obsessed with its power and independence but an economic weakling – that its real, long-term interests lie in closer relations with the EU 9/
Creating a proper EU defence policy is the key to all, Macron says. Sovereignty “starts with military sovereignty”. Here, he is way offside compared to Germany and most other EU countries, who want to dabble at the edge of defence policy and no more 10/
Is it accident that he wants to make defence the core of his “new EU” when France is by far biggest military power in the EU when UK leaves? It amounts to making French army rather than German economy the nucleus of EU action & power. That’s a question which is being asked? 11/
The other thing that is striking is how French all this is – De Gaulle re-worked for the 21st Century but without De Gaulle’s obsession with national sovereignty. For example... 12/
Coming out from under US military domination in Europe; abandoning the pure market obsession of the EU; preventing European technology industry from being swamped by foreign competition; marginalising Britain – these were all De Gaulle obsessions in a very different age 13/
Macron has reworked them in a rather brilliant and coherent way but they remain very French – and will therefore excite suspicion in many other EU countries 14/
The biggest question/doubt is whether EU opinion – whether indeed French opinion – is ready for this kind of European Great Leap Forward 15/
Macron says in the interview: “The sovereignty of the people is in my opinion an unsurpassable factor. It’s what made us what we are, and it must be respected everywhere.” 16/
OK. But if Macron’s ideas were written into a new EU treaty and put to the “sovereign French people” in a referendum, would they do any better than the rejected EU constitution did in 2005? Doubtful. ENDS
