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In the often divisive Brexit world of ‘them and us’ it’s easy to forget that, beyond Brexit, EU leaders still see the UK as a close partner and ally. Today’s messages of congratulation to Boris Johnson from across Europe were a timely reminder.. /1
Whatever happens with Brexit, France, Germany, Poland et al still very much hope to work closely with the UK on international issues like Russia sanctions, Iran and human rights protection BUT /2
EU leaders’ welcoming tone does not signal a willingness to accept whatever Prime Minister Johnson might demand in terms of changes to the Brexit deal. He’s right when he says a no deal Brexit is bad for Brussels but he overestimates EU wiggle room /3
Amendments will only be forthcoming if EU leaders deem them workable, if Dublin is on board and if Brussels is convinced the new prime minister commands a majority in parliament to get the Brexit deal through once and for all .. Big if’s /4
One leading EU figure describes 2 EUschool of thought on Boris Johnson../5
EU school of thought #1 That this is ´Varoufakis the sequel’ : There’ll be lots of pointless meetings with PM Johnson but ultimately this will go nowhere and will result in no deal /5
EU school of thought #2: Because Boris Johnson was a key architect of #Brexit he’s the only one that can get a compromise deal through Parliament .. /6
No meetings in Brussels likely over the summer say EU diplomats. First they need to see the makeup and plan of Boris Johnson government, they say. Till now they’ve heard « only slogans » /7
