Hariri Resignation: where do we go from here
(thread)
(1) If the Prime Minister resigns, the government is history, whatever the parties involved in it think about it. The president of the republic has no constitutional authority to reject or accept.
(thread)
(1) If the Prime Minister resigns, the government is history, whatever the parties involved in it think about it. The president of the republic has no constitutional authority to reject or accept.
Hariri's "resignation" in 2017 was different because circumstances suggested that it was a decision under duress, which made it invalid. The Hariri government will now be considered a "caretaker government" with competences limited to facilitate daily work of the bureaucracy.
Now is the hour of parliament. The MPs will have to visit the president and declare preferences for candidates for the job of PM. If strong support converges on one person, he (or she) will then be charged to form a government.
The power balance in parliament is of course still the same. But the pressure - of the financial crisis first and foremost, but also the street - will make it impossible to play the same old, time consuming games of bargaining for pieces of the cake. They have to move fast
The power balance in parliament is of course still the same. But the pressure - of the financial crisis first and foremost, but also the street - will make it impossible to play the same old, time consuming games of bargaining for pieces of the cake. They have to move fast
Forming yet another all-party government will take forever fighting over bits of power, and recycling the same faces will not get people out the street. The only way to create a credible momentum for change is a government with new, credible faces.
there are tons of those. I could put three governments of highly competent, credible, young people with politcal acumen together for you in as many minutes. there are even some politicians or former who enjoy respect and are credible.
I even have a favorite candidate for PM who may be acceptable to many protestors, tho that may be considered presumptous for someone who is not even Lebanese, due to sexist nationality laws. Instead, a hint: her initials match those of a former PM...
Since the balance of power in parliament is still the same, such a government - any government, really - will only function with full support from all factions. If they do not get out of their sectarian and political trenches and pull together, we are doomed
Such a neutral/independent/technocrat government would also imply that power really resides in parliament, as it should by the constitution. Before, cabinets would almost always be miniaturized copies of the composition of parliament (and when not, there woudl be stalemate) ...
... and cabinet decision would be rubber-stamped by parliament. Now, the MPs would be on the stop. Not clear that all blocs would hold together, as individual MPs will have to think about the wrath they will face come elections
And elections WILL have to come fast. There is no way on earth how legitimacy can be restored without that. As always, the electoral system will be key, but the endless wrangling of the past - formalized gerrymandering, really - will no longer be possible.
It may not be possible to rid of the sectarian system altogether, and that may not even be necessary. What is important is that it opens the door for new contenders. A new, cross-sectarian, center-left party, if capably led, could do very well.
Some of the sectarian parties seen as stalwarts of the old system and tainted with corruption will suffer. FPM and Amal will be trounced. Others with a solid core and/or no real alternative in their respective sect will fare well. Hizbollah is one of them.
Hizbolllah is of course the elephant in the room, the wildcard in the equation. Until now, they have restricted themselves to sending thugs to break up protests, clinging to what has been their most comfortable political position domestically ever.
And even the "sending" of the thugs retained some deniability. Nasrallah of course never TOLD his (or Amal) supporters to beat up protestors, he only peppered his speech on Oct 25 with dogwhistles - trumpets, really. The boyz drew their conclusions.
Nasrallah now has two options. In his speech at the outset of the protests, which was sympathetic to the protests, he said that HA can ALSO take to the streets and stays there until THEIR demands are met. They can do that and REALLY bring the country to a standstill.
OR, HA could accept that the ground is shifting, that this is NOT a new 2005 and no plot against the resistance. He could reverse his disastrous, reactionary position of last week, throw his weight behind a salvation government, and join the push for new elections.
Hizbollah has nothing to fear from such elections. Their grass root support is solid. They are probably the best-organized political force in the country. They will inherit nearly all of Amal's voter base. Lebanon cannot be governed without, much less still against them.
Looming above everybody is the fear of a wholesale collapse of the financial sector. Banks have been closed for 12 days. I do not claim to know what is going on in there, but every day they remain shuttered, the crisis of confidence grows.
If banks go under and people lose half their savings, or the currency gets devaluated and people lose half their income, or all of the above - and many seem to think that is a real possibility - what we have seen may pale compared to what will happen. Time may be running out.
