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Our NBA team projections also now reflect our updating RAPTOR ratings and there are some reasonably big changes, with Houston falling back, the Clippers moving into the No. 1 slot, the Celtics gaining, and the Warriors imploding. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predi…
We've also been tracking how RAPTOR has been doing vs. Vegas and are generally pretty darned pleased with it. Below is a list of cases where RAPTOR preseason W-L lines differed the most from Vegas.

Key:
🦖 RAPTOR lookin' good so far
🤷too soon to say
☄️{meteor} not lookin' great
Thunder OVER 32: 🤷
Spurs UNDER 46.5: 🤷
Suns O 28.5: 🦖
T-wolves O 35.5: 🦖
Knicks U 27.5: 🦖
Nets U 44: 🦖
Grizzlies O 27: 🤷
Blazers U 46.5: 🦖
Hawks U 33.5: 🤷
Mavs O 40.5: 🦖
Wizards O 27: 🤷
Pacers U 43: 🤷
Rockets O 53.5: ☄️
Bulls O 32.5: 🤷
Kings U 38: 🦖
Lakers U 51: ☄️
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Everyone's doing "OK boomer" dunks on Biden for this but if you actually watch the clip (and/or do some research), his position on marijuana is quite a bit further to the left than you'd assume from the headlines.
Biden's position on pot seems to be:
—Decriminalize nationally
—Legalize medical nationally
—Let states legalize recreational
—Release all people with pot convictions from jail
—Remove pot from Sched 1.
—Do more research to see long-term harm potential/if it's a "gateway drug"
Granted, politicians have been way way WAY behind the public on pot legalization. But Biden's position is, on several of the points above, a few steps to the left of the Democratic Party platform in 2016, for instance. It's quite a bit to the left of Obama's when he was POTUS.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Tier 1 NBA title contenders: Bucks, Clippers
Tier 2: 76ers, Rockets, Lakers
Tier 3: Jazz, Celtics, Raptors, Nuggets

Relative to Vegas we're bullish on Milwaukee and bearish on the Lakers. Others fairly similar. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predi…
As a technical aside, Giannis's RAPTOR rating is likely to improve from very good to MVP-level once RAPTOR fully incorporates a strength-of-schedule adjustment. (The Bucks have played a tough schedule so far.) 53eig.ht/349hY9n
The predictive version of RAPTOR (not published, but used to fuel our projections) is more aggressive about adjusting for strength of schedule and thinks Giannis/the Bucks are having a spectacular season. Regular RAPTOR should catch up after another 5-10 games or so.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Iowa's effect on the polls is a lot more complicated than people think.

There's not a one-size-fits-all bounce from winning the state. Sometimes the bounce is enormous. Sometimes it's NEGATIVE.
As a rough approximation, the bounce is fairly well-predicted by how much better a candidate does in Iowa than in her national polls. e.g. a candidate polling at 10 percent nationally, who wins Iowa with 30%... she's gonna get a bounce. But that's just a rough approximation.
Are you seen as an underdog/surprise winner? (e.g. did you beat your polls?) Are there mitigating factors? (From a neighboring state? Then your win might be discounted.) How big is your margin? What's the media narrative over the course of the night? All that stuff matters, too.
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Phoebe Kong 江穎怡
@phoebe_kongwy
#NOW #PolyUniversity - @hkpoliceforce urges protesters to surrender or they will arrest them by force including LETHAL FORCE. Police warns protesters "Time is running out" as they have been tolerated by the society for long. #HongKongProstests #HongKong #HongKongPolice
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David Jacovkis
@dvdjaco
The Voyager 2 spacecraft was launched 5 days before I was born, almost 42 years ago. Her twin sister, Voyager 1, launched 16 days later, but it was still named "1" because it would be the first one to reach Jupiter and Saturn. <thread>
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The Voyagers have travelled over 18.000.000.000 km since then, way further from Earth than any other human device has ever been. Our own journeys back on Earth may have been less breathtaking, but we've also come a long way.
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Rahul Vohra
@rahulvohra
1/ hello! it's been an intense few days. The @Superhuman team and I have been trying to absorb all the feedback and criticism as best we can 🙏
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Jae S Um
@jaesunum
1/ What's wrong with #lawfirm compensation? Let @jordan_law21 count the ways.As predicted 🔮 (by me, about what I was going to do 😇), a #tweetstorm. First the link: law21.ca/2018/09/how-co…
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Joel Bocko
@LostInTheMovies
#10YearsOfLostInTheMovies begins right now - a 100-day trip through my archive leading to July 16, 2018, the 10th anniversary of my site. I will share 10 posts each day, moving chronologically from 2008 to the present. Hope this provides an interesting way to explore my work.
I will thread the links so you can scroll around, hopefully pretty seamlessly (though of course Twitter is not always great at handling this type of navigation). When there are interesting images to incorporate, I’ll add them in a subsequent tweet.
As a disclaimer I certainly don’t always stand by everything I wrote years or even a decade ago; opinions change and I may also have written something differently than I do now. In various ways I’ve changed over the years though I’m still happy with most what I’ve published.
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