Entrevista na BBC (com com correções que pedi após erros apontados no Tweet anterior)
1. “Lula has been released because the Supreme Court changed understanding on when someone can be imprisioned: after all appeals are analyzed, not because he has been cleared of all charges”
1. “Lula has been released because the Supreme Court changed understanding on when someone can be imprisioned: after all appeals are analyzed, not because he has been cleared of all charges”
2. “Lula continues to be convicted in the eyes of our Judiciary. But, since there are appeals that can still be made, he can respond to such crimes in freedom”
3. “Although free, he is ineligible and cannot run for in any elections, since Brazil’s Clean Sheet Law states that those found guilty in two levels of our judiciary — Lula’s case — lose their political rights. He has gained freedom but not eligibility”
4. “For eligibility to be reestablished Minister Sergio Moro, who judged him last year still as Federal Judge, would have to be proved as suspicious by the Supreme Court. My opinion is that this decision is up for grabs, but it is still unlikely”
5. “Besides that, Lula still faces other accusations, some in the Regional Courts of Brasilia, therefore unaffected by Sergio Moro’s possible suspicion which would nullify his current conviction.”
6. “Politically, Lula’s freedom strengthens the PT, as he his a polarizing but still popular figure, especially in regions where Bolsonaro struggles such as the Northeast. But it also revitalizes the anti-PT sentiment, possibly the strongest political feeling in the country”
7. “Reform-wise, I don’t see any alteration in the course of reforms. They are hard and depend much more on Bolsonaro, his ability with Congress , popular pressure and efficient communication with society rather than Lula being free or not”.
8. “Essentially, this is a movement that is positive for Lula’s narrative, but not necessarily for his electoral ambitions: he continues to be an ineligible man, though free. It strengthens narratives from both sides and consequently tension and polarization”
9. “But real practical consequences are limited. The real question with practical consequences is: Will Lula be a candidate in 2022? My answer hasn’t changed: probably not”
