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Quickfire Brexit Truth Thread...

1. We can't get decent trade deals outside the EU. Why?
We're the 6th largest economy but we're tiny compared to the sharks of the USA, the EU itself and China. (We already have trade deals with most other economies of any size thanks to the EU.)
2. We can't replace EU trade with trade with the rest of the world. Why?
The EU is near. The rest of the world is far. Look on any globe. Sea freight shipping times are guaranteed to kill just-in-time production (and rot fresh food). That geography will never change.
3. We can't replace sea freight with air freight. Why?
In 2017, the UK transported 486,000,000 tons of freight by sea versus only 2,739,000 tons by air. That’s 177 times less than we move by sea. It's literally impossible to bridge that sort of gap.
4. We categorically need the EU more than they need us. Why?
- They still have all their trade relationships after Brexit.
- The other EU members stay in the Single Market & Customs Union.
- We are a small fraction of their overall trade, but they are close to half ours.
And if you say "but the referendum was nothing to do with economics" then what do you think pays for more money to the NHS, better schools, improved transport, a more robust social security net, etc. etc. Magic beans? If Brexit tanks the UK economy, forget everything else!
Enjoyed this thread? I bust two dozen Brexit myths in my book (at a less frenetic pace) and get down and dirty with the reality of no deal and trade on WTO terms. I also look at 270+ examples of Brexit damage. So why not give it a chance? Thanks!
amazon.co.uk/dp/B07Z1FTRQW/…
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Saying you can't work with Corbyn isn't the same as saying you can't work with Labour.

Saying you don't like Corbyn's policies isn't the same as saying you don't like all Labour policies.

Despairing of Corbyn's Brexit stance is not the same as rubbishing that of all candidates.
For many non-Labour voters Labour desperately needs, the problem isn't Labour but Corbyn.

The distinction is vital because Corbyn may seem like a fixture, but one day he won't be.
For Tory Remainers, voting...
LibDems: a bit of a wrench, but needs must.
Centrist Labour: probably a step too far, but might consider it.
Corbyn's Labour: miles too far. Too big an ask. No chance.
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Calling keen Corbyn supporters...
If we end up with a Boris Johnson majority ushering in a hard Brexit, you can blame Jo Swinson until you're blue in the face. Everyone else will blame Labour for its wishy-washy Brexit position and unwillingness to work with other parties.
The LibDems are still being pilloried over student fees years and years later. How long do you think Labour will suffer for having been the midwife to a hard Tory Brexit?
There are plenty of places where Labour is genuinely the only alternative to the Tories. Not on policy grounds but based on voting patterns.

There are plenty of places where that's not the case. 2019 is not 2017!!

If you cannot make that distinction, you're part of the problem.
Read 6 tweets
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Brexit myths, busted...

We can't replace EU trade with trade with the rest of the world. Why?

The EU is near. The rest of the world is far. Look on any globe. Sea freight shipping times will kill just-in-time production and rot food. And geography can't change!
We can't get decent trade deals outside the EU. Why?

Even though we're the 6th largest economy, we're tiny compared to the sharks of the USA, the EU and China. They'll eat us for breakfast in negotiations. And that means we have to make bad compromises (chlorinated chicken etc.)
We can't fly stuff in from the rest of the world to make up for what we don't trade locally with the EU. Why?

In 2017, we transported 486,000,000 tons of freight by sea versus just 2,739,000 tons by air. That’s 177 times less than we move by sea. Impossible to bridge that gap!
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Ian56
@Ian56789
Boris Johnson is talking OUT OF HIS ASS.

BoJo's Deal is NOT #Brexit.

The "transition period" will mean further INTERMINABLE DELAY, while we are held as SLAVES of the EU, with no say.

The EU will NEVER agree a deal that takes us out of the EU.

CLEAN #Brexit NOW.

#Ridge
#Marr
Why the hell would the EU ever agree to a Trade Deal that means we stop paying them the current £1bn a MONTH, when they can hold us as PERMANENT SLAVES and pass new EU laws that benefit France and Germany & screw us over?

EU want to milk us DRY.

Clean #Brexit NOW

#Ridge
#Marr
UK has a massive Trade Deficit with the EU.
We buy much more from the EU than we sell to them.

They need us, more than we need them.

Why the hell is nobody using this leverage in negotiations with the EU?

EU & Germany are currently on the brink of RECESSION.

#Marr
#Ridge
Read 20 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
The article and @pernilleru's question reminds me of one of the points discussed directly after the #Brexit referendum – is it possible to have sectoral trade deals? And if so could we have one with the EU? /1
In theory you can have a partial scope agreements that cover a limited number of tariff lines, like the one suggested in the article (agri for car parts). BUT partial scope deals are reserved for developing countries (notified to the WTO under the Enabling Clause) /2
Japan, the US and the UK are obviously not developing countries. Trade deals between developed countries should liberalise “substantially all trade” (according to THAT GATT Article) /3
Read 6 tweets
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Agu Cossy
@Louincossy
If you're Nigerian.. Read this!

Personal Opinion!

African leaders on Sunday voted to choose Ghana as the new headquarters to House the new Africa free trade zone. Coming with the new trade zone is a new airline hub for Africa to be built in Ghana.

#Thread
14 years ago Donald Duke had initiated discussions on the need for an airline hub to serve Africa to be situated in calabar. Unfortunately the dream died with Tinapa.

It is important that Africa has its own hub, but unfortunately our political leadership just do not understand
how these things work, so they never take it serious. From Nigeria, to travel to most African countries within Africa, you have to first travel either to Frankfurt or Amsterdam before you can connect to headquarters of most African countries.
Read 19 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) we need to talk about David

@DavidDavisMP is very confident that we can cope easily with a no deal #Brexit.

He was also confident however that we would be completing our first major trade deals 3 months ago, at the latest

They're a bit late
@DavidDavisMP 3) he was also confident that we would bypass the EU and strike trade deals directly with Germany

Despite this being illegal in the EU and almost certainly under WTO rules
@DavidDavisMP 4) in fact as we come to the end of negotiations on this stage with the EU, we can look forward to a free trade area twice its size
Read 7 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Sir Ivan Rogers speech, a sobering & devastating speech from our former leading EU diplomat on #Brexit, its history and the UK position.

Should be read by *everyone* however I'll pull out a few key points in this thread

webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache…
2) the UK already had the best deal of all EU member states. We may not have believed it but the other 27 nations did.
Anyone who thinks about this for more than 5 minutes would realise this
Cameron in fact managed to improve it further, but the press torpedoed his deal
3) the 4 freedoms are seen as indivisible by the EU27. Trucks & money having more rights to move than people is absolutely unacceptable to them. That's just a fact.
Anyone, Labour or Tory, who tells you we can get a great deal without free movement of people is lying to you
Read 20 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) #Brexit dirty secret
There's a worrying little issue at the heart of brexit which is keeping the Brexiters awake at night. They want out of CU, but don't really care about SM, but their supporters are largely the opposite. This helps finish Brexit
Why? Pull up a chair
2) although Brexiters such as Johnson & co make blustering noises about the SM, it's likely they couldn't care less, at least not initially.

If you read between the lines in the Ref campaign, you could argue they were pitching for the Norway model
3) in the Ref brexit leaders never mentioned reducing immigration at all, in fact Hannan was actually campaigning for EFTA beforehand.
Let's face it, free marketers don't care about FoM or the £10B payment, it was the swashbuckling Free Trade Deals outside of CU they were after
Read 6 tweets

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