Thread by @tony_nog

1) #Brexit dirty secret
There's a worrying little issue at the heart of brexit which is keeping the Brexiters awake at night. They want out of CU, but don't really care about SM, but their supporters are largely the opposite. This helps finish Brexit
Why? Pull up a chair

2) although Brexiters such as Johnson & co make blustering noises about the SM, it's likely they couldn't care less, at least not initially.

If you read between the lines in the Ref campaign, you could argue they were pitching for the Norway model

3) in the Ref brexit leaders never mentioned reducing immigration at all, in fact Hannan was actually campaigning for EFTA beforehand.
Let's face it, free marketers don't care about FoM or the £10B payment, it was the swashbuckling Free Trade Deals outside of CU they were after

4) inside SM, outside CU is the most likely option they were originally hoping for.

The problem is, this isn't what they sold. They focused on "immigration" and the £350 M. The average leave voter has only a passing interest in new FTAs, and would probably reject them anyway

5) so when the CU is eventually accepted by both sides (because it won't be possible to generate enough public interest in stopping it) the chances are many of the leave leaders will lose interest. They do care about free trade but not about FoM or the other aspects of the SM

6) as said, they'll "die in a ditch" over the CU but most people would ask "why? Isn't the SM/free trade deal with the EU more important?" Not to the Brexiters

Watch for the first leave leaders to abandon Brexit once the CU is confirmed as the way forward
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