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What does this all mean? (Thread)

He’s given way to pressure from the broader Brexit movement and announced he’s standing aside in all Tory seats. But if he intends to stand still in all Lab seats the effects might still be muted.

Farage says he’s standing aside in Tory seats in the south because he might have allowed the Lib Ds in. Possible in a few seats. Suspect not tmany. It’s moderately helpful for the Tories but they need to gain not just defend. And Farage says he’s still standing in Lab marginals.

If he still intends to stand in those Lab seats, like the one we are in (Hartlepool) or Bishop Auckland, just down the road, entirely possible he costs the Tories those gains.

Unless of course, the Tories respond to this with an offer of their own...or conveniently don’t file a candidate in time. There are lots of seats, like Hartlepool where they still haven’t found a candidate...

Also, this could change the perception of the Brexit Party. BXP and before that UKIP was the acceptable alternative for frustrated northern/midlands Lab voters who couldn’t contemplate voting for the Tories. Farage now working with them. Could change voting behaviour.

The Labour critique of Farage which has never properly stuck, that he’s just a Tory, a wolf in sheep’s clothing, could well stick now.

It could also prompt a rethink of the remain alliance on the other side. Pressure to work with Labour more.

Make no mistake, unless he knows that the Tories are going to very quietly stand aside for him (talks have been ongoing) this a real retreat from Farage. None of his demands, which were set out to me only last week, have been met.

In the long term, an interesting development for today, would be that you could imagine, in the event of another hung parliament with no majority for the deal, that Farage (with assurances) could be in a position to campaign for Johnson’s deal in a referendum.