By the end of 2021, will you be in a stronger or weaker position to pass full M4A? Warren's transition complies with reconciliation and is guaranteed a majority vote. It drains insurance industry power by reducing market share. OTOH failed votes rarely increase political capital.
I can see the view that not passing anything and/or holding failed votes on full M4A in 2021-22 will build more political capital and momentum going into the 2022 midterms than a win on Warren's transition plan. I don't agree with that view, but I respect it.
But IMHO there's a stronger case for the idea that notching a win in 2021 on a plan like Warren's transition builds capital towards passing full M4A, on both the policy and political fronts. E.g.,
This is important, too. The Senate map in 2022 midterms is better for us than it is in 2020. Would you rather go into the midterms having delivered on popular stuff that helps people, or failed votes that probably divided Democrats? I'd choose the former.
Cross-posting this from the incomparable @AdyBarkan. Whole 🧵 is a must-read, but this is especially relevant:
