1. I guessed the Roger Stone jury would return a guilty verdict by lunchtime Friday so I'm going to make another prediction. Hopefully I'm on a roll.
Trump will lose his attempt to block Congress from his tax returns before this Thanksgiving.
Here's my analysis.
Trump will lose his attempt to block Congress from his tax returns before this Thanksgiving.
Here's my analysis.
2. Emergency stays sought from rulings of the DC Circuit go first to CJ Roberts. So, when the court issued its order today, I think that was from Roberts' chambers and may be bad news for Trump.
First, the parties were working at a pace that would have the House Democrats file
First, the parties were working at a pace that would have the House Democrats file
3. its opposition to the Trump stay and Cert request by Fri. Nov. 22. Seven days from Trump's Nov 15 filing. But the court, presumably Roberts, ordered the opposition due on Nov 21. 🤔
"UPON CONSIDERATION of the application of counsel for the applicants and the
"UPON CONSIDERATION of the application of counsel for the applicants and the
4. November 18, 2019 letter received from counsel for respondent the Committee on Oversight and Reform of the U.S. House of Representatives, IT IS ORDERED that the mandate of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, case No. 19-5142, is hereby
5. stayed pending receipt of a response, due on or before Thursday, November 21, 2019, by 3 p.m. ET, and further order of the undersigned or of the Court."
One more day?
So why would Roberts do that? Here's why.
Filing by 3 pm Thursday gives the justices a chance to read it
One more day?
So why would Roberts do that? Here's why.
Filing by 3 pm Thursday gives the justices a chance to read it
6. to be ready for Friday. That's the SCOTUS conference day (green). So, if Roberts wanted to help Trump stonewall Congress he could have kept the parties planned filing date of Nov 22 and the next conference would be Friday Dec 6. But he wants it on for this Friday.
7. If he knew that the Trump had the other four Conservatives to vote to stay his role would be inconsequential. I suppose it could mean that Roberts is so certain they will stay that he's going to get it out of the way. But there are now three Courts of
8. Appeals cases in the pipeline that could be made moot by denying this stay and that's what I think what is going to happen. Will they announce it on Friday? Will they wait to draft a long opinion?
9. Trump's positions are so outrageous and unsupportable as to be frivolous and a one line per curium order that the stay and cert are denied would be the right thing to do. Roberts won't put his legacy into the Trump sewer. I think that by Thanksgiving, we will see an order
@maddow @Lawrence @MSNBC 11. Roberts has to be horrified about Trump. If he joins with the other four Conservatives, I seriously doubt he will get them to join an opinion critical of Trump. It's possible but not likely. But if he joins the four liberals, he also gets to write the opinion. And I think
12. that's what he's going to be doing this week. He may not actually write it but like Mozart he has it composed in head ready to put to paper after reading Trump's drivel. And he will leave the POTUS strong but will not abide a dictator. And my long shot is that
13. Kavanaugh will like concur but may take the opportunity to pen his previously stated position that Congress has to act to give @POTUS immunity. Not likely to ever happen after Trump but that was Kavanaugh's past view. To be fly on the wall in the conference. And heads
@uscourts @FBIWFO @NSAGov 15. Finally, the House Democrats advised they did not object to a ten day stay. That was slow pitch to Roberts but he chose not to swing at it. Instead, he granted a stay only up to Thursday the 21st. SCOTUS already has Trump's filing and they aren't staying beyond Thursday
16. the 21st? I think that means bad news is coming for Trump. They're just giving the House the ability to complete the record. But CJ Roberts knows Trump has already lost.
