As a first cut for consideration, I'll probably draw the line at 40+ WAR.
That gives you 17.
Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Walker, Jeter,
Rolen, Ramirez, Jones, Helton, Sheffield,
Pettitte, Abreu, Sosa, Kent, Giambi,
Vizquel, Lee
That gives you 17.
Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Walker, Jeter,
Rolen, Ramirez, Jones, Helton, Sheffield,
Pettitte, Abreu, Sosa, Kent, Giambi,
Vizquel, Lee
I think I've been undervaluing just how good Giambi's peak was. Avg of all HOF 1bman had a WAR7 of 42.7. 
Regarding accused/confirmed PED users, my POV is
1) If the HOF or MLB doesn't want me to vote for those players, then don't include them on the ballot.
2) I have a hard time assuming that we can neatly divide players into clean or dirty based on public info, so I choose not to.
1) If the HOF or MLB doesn't want me to vote for those players, then don't include them on the ballot.
2) I have a hard time assuming that we can neatly divide players into clean or dirty based on public info, so I choose not to.
I don't begrudge others a different viewpoint, though I'd prefer more consistency regarding rule breaking like greenies, etc.
This looks important.
I'm not 100% sure about this metric I worked up with some help from our crew, but I think things like MVP and CY awards share are useful numbers for measuring player dominance. I think it's interesting to do something similar with WAR top 40 finishes rather than the BBWAA votes.
We can create a scale that weights each WAR ranking finish to the matching number for MVP voting finish. 1st = .86 MWP awards share (since not all MVP's are unanimous, there are 4.2 MVP shares/season available due to voting structure)
before I post the top 300 let me smooth this out a bit given some quirks of year-to-year voting.
OK if we fit these values to an exponential curve we get.
1.04874 exp( rank X -0.221101 )
which is close. If someone had the most WAR ten years in a row the empirical value gives him 8.58 MWPshares vs 8.41 with the best fit. Anyways, using these values...
1.04874 exp( rank X -0.221101 )
which is close. If someone had the most WAR ten years in a row the empirical value gives him 8.58 MWPshares vs 8.41 with the best fit. Anyways, using these values...
OK if we recompute MVP awards share using WAR, here are the top 300 A-T in MWP (Most WAR Player) share.
If you got 3-4 WAR for 15yrs (Thome #264), this hates you. If you got 7+ WAR for 4 yrs (Hi, Josh Donaldson #94) it loves you.
If you got 3-4 WAR for 15yrs (Thome #264), this hates you. If you got 7+ WAR for 4 yrs (Hi, Josh Donaldson #94) it loves you.
This feels useful to me, but ymmv. It's a little surprising to see Cano and Utley both in the top 100 in this and basically be the highest ranked non-steroids players. This may overrank peak, but I do like peak value.
I'm just going to go through the ballot in WAR, so the numbers refer to that.
1. Barry Lamar Bonds, LF
Ruth more dominant vs lg w/11.7 MWPshare & 10 #1's in WAR, but that was 100yrs ago. BB clearly the best-ever post WW2.
GOAT batter, great fielder & base-runner.
A HOFer: yes
see thread:
Ruth more dominant vs lg w/11.7 MWPshare & 10 #1's in WAR, but that was 100yrs ago. BB clearly the best-ever post WW2.
GOAT batter, great fielder & base-runner.
A HOFer: yes
see thread:
2. Roger Clemens, SP
Clemens-Big Train vs Bonds - Ruth is almost perfectly symmetric. Ruth adds pitching prowess & WJ had 13batWAR. But for postWW2 Clemens is best ever by a lot.
In BOS: 81WAR, post-BOS: 58WAR
A HOFer: yes
thread:
Clemens-Big Train vs Bonds - Ruth is almost perfectly symmetric. Ruth adds pitching prowess & WJ had 13batWAR. But for postWW2 Clemens is best ever by a lot.
In BOS: 81WAR, post-BOS: 58WAR
A HOFer: yes
thread:
I can't tell if twitter suppresses these from peoples' feeds because they are threaded or not, so I may RT them. I assume there is some interest in them, but if not feel free to mute me.
Gotta head home for the day, taking the family to the Philly pops, probably back at it tomorrow.
3. Curt Schilling, SP
not a fan of the person, tbh
Schilling is right there w/ Glavine & Smoltz & his peak exceeds theirs imo, was 3x in top 5 for lg WAR (all players) vs 1 for Glavine & Smoltz. In '01 & '02 he would have led AL in pitchWAR & won CYA (maybe).
HOFer? Clearly yes
not a fan of the person, tbh
Schilling is right there w/ Glavine & Smoltz & his peak exceeds theirs imo, was 3x in top 5 for lg WAR (all players) vs 1 for Glavine & Smoltz. In '01 & '02 he would have led AL in pitchWAR & won CYA (maybe).
HOFer? Clearly yes
4. Larry Walker, RF
Yes, LW has 4th most WAR on ballot.
OPS+ Reggie 139, Walker 141 + Great RFer. Not durable.
WAR/150: 5.5, FRobbie: 5.7
GP: 1988, P.O'Neill: 2053
WAA: 48.3 (8th - RFs), Vlad: 29.5, Gwynn: 36.8, Kaline: 55.5
HOFer? Clearly yes
Yes, LW has 4th most WAR on ballot.
OPS+ Reggie 139, Walker 141 + Great RFer. Not durable.
WAR/150: 5.5, FRobbie: 5.7
GP: 1988, P.O'Neill: 2053
WAA: 48.3 (8th - RFs), Vlad: 29.5, Gwynn: 36.8, Kaline: 55.5
HOFer? Clearly yes
I think I'll make the player evals their own tweets and then link them here for the threading.
I’ve got twelve above the line for me. Need to drop two. Could drop Jeter as he will get in regardless. Schilling, maybe for off field, or two of RFers.
I've been writing about the HOF for quite awhile. It's a bit surreal I'm about to submit my ballot.
bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/20/kee…
bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/20/kee…
Feel free to put me on blast.
The only thing that can stop me now is the United States Postal Service.
