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excellent speech by Augustin Carstens of BIS on financial channel of exchange rates. And I would add, on why Rey's dilemma remains the policy challenge for EM central banks
bis.org/speeches/sp190…
quite remarkable that it wont name the elephant in the room - capital controls, the spectre that hunts the global financial cycle - but makes clear the costs of reserve accumulation @pablobortz
when Carstens was at Banco de Mexico, he experimented with some interesting market-maker interventions, first I think among EMs.
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Daniela Gabor
@DanielaGabor
I am at @UNCTAD 12th Debt Management Conference - making debt work for development.
Carl-Hermann Schletwein, Minister of Finance, Namibia: private finance comes to Global South because of poor returns in Global North. We are not sure we are getting resilient capital flows.
Namibia has the worst draught in 90 years, govt provided emergency food, water and subsidies to farmers to reduce impact of climate crisis on industry and exports.
Read 9 tweets
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Daniela Gabor
@DanielaGabor
Quite the racist nerve from WB given how many corruption scandals WB has been involved in.
Simeon Djankov, the @WorldBank director who could only think of non-white 'corrupt' politicians to defend low corporate taxes, has been Minister of Finance in a conservative government in Bulgaria plagued by corruption scandals @ingridharvold @MiriamBrett @crystalsimeoni
same person who responds 'Marxist' to critiques of 'Doing Business Index' that assumes corporate taxes are a plague on corporations, and a gift to corrupt asian/african politicians ihttps://twitter.com/DanielaGabor/status/1194728355809112065
Read 4 tweets
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Daniela Gabor
@DanielaGabor
Excellent. @WorldBank thinks you're a Marxist when you ask critical questions about their uber-neoliberal Doing Business (all hail the free market) indicator.
mother of all ironies is the critique of 'Doing Business Index' from Paul Romer highlighted the case of Chile, downgraded during Bachelet and upgraded in poorly masked support for Piñera, the president who just responded to popular mobilisation by bringing army in the streets
Imagine defending support of Piñera hardwired in your indicators by calling a mainstream development think tank 'marxist'. I hope that guy meets some Thirld World Network critical development thinkers
Read 3 tweets

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Yorick de Mombynes
@ydemombynes
My 140 favorite quotes from The Ethics of Money Production (2008), by Jörg Guido Hülsmann
1. “#Money is omnipresent in modern life, yet the production of money does not seem to warrant any moral assessment”. J.G.Hülsmann
2. “To be sure, central bank representatives are lecturing the public on the importance of business #ethics; but their concerns do not seem to apply to themselves”. J.G.Hülsmann
Read 142 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Good morning 🌻 - light Asia day (Korea consumer confidence slowed to 97.5 from 97.9 (no surprise here); tonight US new home sales & consumer confidence.

China enterprise data out 27 & Xi & Trump maybe dining over🐙 takoyaki (my fav street food) in Osaka & June manu PMI 30.
Some of my followers ask, why bother studying economics if markets are divorced from economics? Actually they don't. But when you look at data, u have to know whether: a) data lagging? GDP very lagged, Exports lagged by 1 month unless u're Korea (Phils 3months, then coincidental
So if data is lagging, what can you learn from it? You can learn about the past, which has clues about the present & the future, such as investment, imports, etc. Also the past tells u the future of debt affordability (if earnings/growth decline, then u know that the future is..)
Read 21 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Good morning🌻: Japan April exports came out WORSE than expected (to be fair only marginally). April in Asia:

Japan -2.4%
China -2.7%
India -0.6%
Indonesia -13.1%
Singapore NODX -10%
Korea -2%
Taiwan -3.3%
Vietnam 7.5% 👏🏻

Thailand is out today & a strong baht isn't helpful🇹🇭
We have May data out of Korea ugly & Taiwan likely worse than April (some were excited by the "bottoming" of April & then May data came).

Still, Japan Reuters Tankan manufacturing mood improved 1st time in 7 months. But I worry that it'll encourage the bad-idea VAT hike 🙄🇯🇵
Markets will watch the Fed minutes (we EM people care very much about the USD b/c it lubricates or shall I say sometimes constricts global activities);

At 2am, people'll pour over the word count & 🙏🏻for respite from JPO - markets priced in rate ✂️✂️.

Let's talk about the USD.
Read 23 tweets
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Hyun Song Shin
@HyunSongShin
Exchange rates and monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies bis.org/speeches/sp190…
Public lecture at the London School of Economics
Exchange rate pass-through over the last twenty years
Read 9 tweets
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Hyun Song Shin
@HyunSongShin
My presentation at G20-IMF seminar on global imbalances
Current account balances show imprint of global firms through corporate saving (ie, undistributed profit of firms)
Side note: corporate saving does not mean firms add to cash holdings; retained profit can be used for fixed investment as well as adding to cash balances
Read 10 tweets
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
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