So @BorisJohnson has kept his promise to @Nigel_Farage. Manifesto pledge is harder than his original Twitter video aimed at Farage. Says: ”We will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020.” The black and white of the manifesto does matter more 1/2
Question now is: will Johnson break this manifesto pledge or leave transition with no deal in very likely event that trade agreement is not struck by Dec 2020. He could argue in Parliament that he has a mandate for this if he wins a majority (for which we're at 45%, & rising) 2/3
Our basecase is still a 1yr extension to the transition, that will come at the very last minute next June. But we'll all probably have to go round the no deal circle all over again in the first half of next year 3/3
