Thread by @AukeHoekstra

My beloved @guardian is giving @HansWernerSinn a platform to disseminate the fake news that EVs emit more CO2 than diesels.

How many times do I have to debunk this untrue fact?

I hope the Guardian will issue a correction but in the meantime... here we go again... (thread)

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1198852222811017217

Sinn is a famous German economist who is (for reasons unknown) now bashing renewable energy and EVs. The untrue claim that EVs emit more CO2 than diesel originates with a paper Sinn co-wrote that was promptly debunked.

E.g. see here for an overview: chargedevs.com/newswire/here-…

Important note: this was not a study by experts from the respected @ifo_Institut but a paper co-written by it's former head (Sinn). And although I cannot claim Sinn's distinguished career, he doesn't know much about EVs while it is my specialty at the @TUeindhoven.

So I took his paper apart rather thoroughly in this twitter thread and although many people reacted to it, the calculations still stand (in contrast to those in Sinn's paper).

https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1120327764543004672?s=19

Later he reacted indirectly and without tackling the main criticism and I think most unbiased readers will agree that I took apart that reply rather thoroughly too.
innovationorigins.com/diesel-better-…

It even inspired an scientific article where I use his paper as an example of what people do wrong when they claim EVs emit more CO2 during their lifetime.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Now Sinn triumphantly introduces a new 'major study' commissioned by @ADAC, @OEAMTC.

As ADAC and others will tell you it is not a study but an expert tool.

And lots is wrong with it as I detailed here:

https://twitter.com/aukehoekstra/status/1167865744983379969

And here:

https://twitter.com/aukehoekstra/status/1167552109379805184?lang=en

And here:
innovationorigins.com/tomorrow-is-wh…

Yes, it can be a full-time job to debunk the objectively false information that Sinn, ADAC and now the Guardian are spreading.

So let me explain it (again). It's not rocket science.

First Sinn and others take very high estimates for emissions during battery production based on outdated scientific studies of small battery plants.

To show how wrong this is (and how Sinn and other plod on, despite knowing this) take this nugget.
innovationorigins.com/tomorrow-is-wh…

If you use fresh base data you arrive at about 65 kg CO2 (or less) that is emitted per kWh of battery, not the 175 of Sinn and others.

To be clear: this is not an *opinion* but the effect of using more recent and relevant data. Sinn is simply outdated.

I already gave multiple sources in the already referenced links but since I wrote these some new convincing reports and studies came out. E.g. a deepdive by Bloomberg NEF saying it's 40 kg/kWh in coal heavy China (although you have to add ~15 kg for mining which they excluded).

And two other recent sources are this scientific study:
mdpi.com/2313-0105/5/1/…

And this report by commissioned by @transenv using the in depth knowledge of superexpert @hanseric Melin:
transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files…

Any semblance of a claim that the EV emits more CO2 than a diesel is now already in tatters but let me quickly finish the other points of critique.

Each of them is able to falsify the claim too so if you don't believe this one, you can pick another.

The assumption that batteries have to be replaced after 150k km is just as outdated as the battery emissions we just covered. There are countless sources documenting new car batteries easily do 1500 cycles or 500k km.
steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tes…

So no battery replacement.

Onto emissions while driving.

Sinn and I both derive emissions per km by taking all the emissions over the lifetime of the vehicle (including production and recycling) and then dividing by the total number of kilometers. That's not a point of contention.

If you look over the lifetime of the EV, the grid will be cleaner as time goes on. This has a big impact: after 15 years the mix in Germany or Europe is easily 25-60% cleaner.

Sinn assumes the EV will be driving on the coal heavy German mix it's entire life. That's so wrong.

Sinn bases energy use while driving on formal EU tests, that are known to show emissions 25-52% lower than reality. Why not take road tests (e.g. spritmonitor.de) or the more accurate US EPA tests. My guess: it would (again) invalidate his "EVs emit more CO2" claim.

But the biggest reason we are doing EVs is not because they currently emit about half the CO2 but because you can go *really* low in the end. See the "Renewable Future" scenario from my publication. (Buchal is first author of the paper with Sinn.)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

So the claim that EVs emit more CO2 than diesel is based on a string of demonstrably outdated or false assumptions as has been made clear to Sinn numerous times now.

I find it shameful that the Guardian gives a platform for this objectively false information.

END

heads up to @Sustainable2050 @ChristianOnRE @Stefan_Hajek @StromschlagYT @gnievchenko @MLiebreich @GeorgeMonbiot @transenv @HansLak @hanseric @DerGraslutscher @nworbmot @DrSimEvans
(Might be interesting but pls mute conversation if it gets too many retweets/reactions.)

The reaction of @colinmckerrache (head of a team that researches this full time).

https://twitter.com/colinmckerrache/status/1198901997820358656?s=19

@Sustainable2050 @ChristianOnRE @Stefan_Hajek @StromschlagYT @gnievchenko @MLiebreich @GeorgeMonbiot @transenv @HansLak @hanseric @DerGraslutscher @nworbmot @DrSimEvans @guardian has decided to publish a rebuttal of sorts by
@transenv William Todts and link to that in the piece by Hans Werner Sinn. It is clearly written and I agree 100%. Bravo!
theguardian.com/environment/20…

However...

Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. I think we should expect more from the
@guardian than publishing verifiable falsehoods as opinions. William alludes to this in his piece.

So is the @guardian a merchant of doubt or a quality newspaper?

A bit disheartening to read William say we can debunk false studies until we drop but there will always be new ones. Hope he doesn't mean that my debunking is a waste of time :-(

@colinmckerrache Oops, broke the thread but this is kind of important if you scroll through to the end.

https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1199331004911013894