Thread by @jonworth

OK then.

Recommendations for *every one* of the UK's 650 #GE2019 constituencies now on my #TacticalVoting guide blog post - V6

jonworth.eu/2019-uk-genera…

There were 10 where I couldn't make a call. Now I have for these.

Broxtowe
Harborough
Hendon
Kensington
Luton South
Putney
Truro & Falmouth
Watford
Ynys Mon
York Outer

Broxtowe

Tactical vote: Labour

Sorry Anna Soubry. This was on a knife-edge between Labour and Tories last time, and I cannot see how Soubry can retain it.

And sorry, sentimentality doesn't count here.

Harborough

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

This one was pointed out to me late, hence my late decision. There has been some Lib Dem support here (also at Council elections) but no sign of Labour support growing.

Hendon

Tactical vote: Labour

Constituency poll here shows Labour much stronger than the Lib Dems, but Tories gaining over Labour (due, I presume, to this seat having the 2nd highest Jewish population in the UK)

Kensington

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Sorry Labour, but on the basis of the demography and the polling the Lib Dems are better placed to beat the Tories here. This one really needed a Remain Alliance but didn't get one 😢

Luton South

Tactical vote: Labour

Sorry Gavin Shuker (Change UK) but I cannot see how the seat is winnable for you, not least because of the poor Lib Dem performance here in the past. Better Labour wins than a Tory does.

Putney

Tactical vote: Labour

Unlike some other parts of south west London there is no sign of a Lib Dem revival here. While Labour has won Putney in the past.

Truro & Falmouth

Tactical vote: Labour

Changing demography (more students), and solid performance for Labour in 2017 make this one look a better bet for Labour

Watford

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

The data points in all directions here - not least that Labour did very well in 2015 and 2017, but the Council is controlled by the Lib Dems. Based on the demography as well Lib Dem makes more sense.

Ynys Mon

Tactical vote: Plaid Cymru

Complex - narrowly held by Labour, with the Tories and PC vying for second. The nature of the seat, and that PC is Unite to Remain choice makes them the better bet here.

York Outer

Tactical vote: Lib Dem

Another seat where the data points in different directions. Solid performance locally for the Lib Dems over the medium term means this is a better Lib Dem bet I think.

As ever:
- these are only the *really* complex cases! A tactical voting recommendation in 500+ seats is *much* simpler!
- all the tactical voting sites do a good job in the majority of seats
- data *might* yet change, so check the advice again before you vote!

/ends