Thread by @jonworth

A little thread about the complexities of tactical voting...

But first of all:
- tactical voting works in the vast majority of cases
- the tactical voting advice sites are good! Use them!
- here's a guide as to how to do it:
jonworth.eu/2019-uk-genera…

Right, but let's look at two complicated cases. Both Tory seats.

Watford

and

Putney

Before you read on, think in your own mind: if you were a Remain person in either, how would you vote?

Let's look at each of the details.

GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS

Watford
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watford_(…
Con-Lab-Lib 2017, 2015
Con-Lib-Lab 2010
Lab-Lib-Con 2005
Lab-Con-Lib 2001 and earlier

Putney
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putney_(U…
Con-Lab-Lib 2017, 2015, 2010, 2005
Lab-Con-Lib 2001, 1997

Referendum

(based on @chrishanretty's data)

Watford
51.2% Leave

Putney
27.8% Leave

Local Council

Watford Borough Council
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watford_B…
26 Lib Dem, 10 Labour, 0 Tory

Wandsworth Borough Council
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wandswort…
33 Tory, 26 Labour, 1 Ind, 0 Lib Dem

Tactical Voting Sites modelling

Watford
Remain United - Labour
Best for Britain - Lib Dem

Putney
Remain United - Labour
Best for Britain - Lib Dem

What none of us know

- how well organised and active are the local campaigns by Labour or Lib Dems?
- where do the Tory pragmatists who voted for Harrington and Greening then go? What do those two tacitly say?

Also there has not been a constituency poll in either constituency

My *own* call is

Watford - Lib Dem
Putney - Labour

Because the local Lib Dem strength is better in Watford due to the local council results - in my view. And Lib Dems at GEs were never even 2nd in Putney

*BUT* based on the data we have you could draw the opposite conclusions

If your response to this thread is to scream BIAS! at me, please give it a break.

Trying to make a call like this is damned hard, and you can make a legitimate and plausible argument either way.

/ends