Thread by @jonworth

Let’s look into the 🔮 beyond #GE2019

If the polls are right, the Tories will end up with a majority. Let’s say they have a working majority of 20 seats

That’ll be enough for them to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) through the Commons, and #Brexit will happen by 31 January

The Tories will be feted by the right wing press, and Labour will be in disarray having lost a further election (Corbyn will have lost two, so probably has to go)

But then, soon after, the honeymoon will come to a juddering halt

As the Tories have promised no extension of the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020 - a decision @MichelBarnier and his team will have noted carefully in Brussels - the EU will be ready for a trade deal offer to the UK in spring 2020

Here you go, UK, the EU will say. You want a deal by the end of the year? Here’s a proposal.

Here’s an inkling of how it’ll look:

https://twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1198868449948250112

It’ll be a repeat of the well prepared Barnier with his papers facing the empty handed David Davis at the start of Brexit negotiations a few years back

“We can’t accept *that*!” the British will say.

“But what have you got to offer?” the EU will reply.

“We can’t extend transition beyond 2020!”

Round and round and round we go.

By setting the end of 2020 deadline on transition, UK is doing *exactly* what it did with Article 50.

Having set the deadline, while needing a Deal, and the *other side* has all the plans... the UK condemns itself to giving up its demands, refusing a Deal, or still extending

By the summer of 2020 Johnson is going to realise the sort of Deal he wants with the EU isn’t available, and he’ll have to break his promise and extend.

While hardliners in the ERG will say (again) it’s better to just walk away.

“Get Brexit done” the Tory slogan says.

“You want that trade deal by the end of 2020 then? Well you do it on our terms” the EU will reply. And just wait for the howls of anguish in Downing Street.

/ends