Thread by @pmdfoster

Why is Jeremy Corbyn so unpopular?

His net approval rating is 'minus 60' - that's heroically, historically poor.

But why? And is there a way back, like 2017?

Been pondering with help of @chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale My latest 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale So Just how unpopular is @jeremycorbyn? Well, the answer is off-the-charts unpopular.

Negative 60. The worst approval rating ever received by a Labour or Conservative leader, according to Ipsos/Mori /2

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn It's actually a game of two halves - as @chriscurtis94 observes - which saw Corby start life as leader fairly unpopular, then around the 2017 election his numbers went up, but since then (since the Glastonbury 2017 peak) they crashed. /3

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn So what happened?

From the heady June 2017 night when the crowds at Glastonbury sang 'oh-jeremy-corbyn' as he quoted Shelley, promising “another world is possible if we come together”....to now.

The anti-semitism? The radical left economic agenda? The #Brexit havering? /4

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn Reading minds of UK electorate is obviously an inexact science, but looking at the polling and focus-grouping what emerge is the apparently contradictory conclusion that @jeremycorbyn is both too radical, and yet too wishy-washy for the UK electorate. How so? /5

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn First the 'too radical' part.

As @robfordmancs observes, in modern politics its the 'salesman that matters more than the product'.

And Corbyn, with his antecedents on the radical/socialist left is TOO far left. /6

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn So while individual Labour policies poll well - such as renationalising the railways, putting workers on company boards, introducing a wealth tax - they do much less well when sold as a package by @jeremycorbyn /7

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn Per @YouGov 57 per cent of voters reckon a labour govt will bring recession in 2/3 years and while voters might like Labour policies in isolation, they don't want the tax rises that they fear will come with them.

This tells you another thing.../8

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov As @ProfTimBale observes the "sweet spot" of UK politics remains (despite the financial crisis, austerity and banker bashing) remains right of centre on social issue and left of centre on econmic issues - indeed it hasn't moved that much from the Blair era. /9

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov But this issue of the "salesman" mattering more than the product brings us to the next issue for Corbyn - he's too radical Left, but also two "wishy-washy" - particularly on the BIG ISSUE of the day/election, which is #Brexit.

So in Jan 2019 @YouGov did some asking on this../10

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov 1. That nearly half of respondents said Brexit was reason for falling out of love with Corbyn

2. That they found him "wishy-washy" a "damp squib" a "ditherer" (link below) /11

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov Now in an era of 'valence' politics - where competence, decisiveness, strenght is key - this is a disaster for Corbyn.

And it affects his OWN side too. Those amazing -60 numbers are only possible because Corbyn is 'underwater' with his OWN PEOPLE /12

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov When it comes to whether Mr Corbyn is “decisive or indecisive” YouGov finds he loses 59-28 among his own supporters; more Labour voters (49 per cent) think Mr Corbyn is “weak” than think he’s “strong” (29 per cent). The numbers are mindblowingly bad. /13

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov By contrast @BorisJohnson is historically unpopular BUT at least his own tribe thinks he's strong/competent/decisive...

His NI-only #Brexit deal may have been a hasty capitulation, it may have broken promises, but merely doing a deal was good for his 'decisivness' numbers. /14

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson So is Corbyn totally sunk?

It doesn't look good, given that only one person since 1979 has gone on to lead the country having trailed in this metric prior to polling day.

(Since you ask, that was Blair in 2005 who was -25 and beat Howard who was -10) /15

BUT...there's a but

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson Paradoxically, as @robfordmancs obvserves, Corbyn's massive unpopularity with his own side means that his 'unfav' rating is a bit softer than it looks, since when faced with a binary Lab/Con choice, they'll hold their noses and vote Labour. /16

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson That's what happened in 2017, says Prof Ford, when Corby started 20-points back and won 30 additional Labour seats. "His people came home"....so the question is, will they again? Bearing in mind Corbyn doesn't need to win to govern. He has coalition options Johnson does not. /17

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson But can history repeat itself as the campaign gets to the wire? The portents certainly don't look that good at the moment. Why?

Two obvious reasons. 1) Johnson is not @theresa_may who was a rotten stump politician 2) The Lib Dems. /18

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson @theresa_may In 2017 the Lib Dems were totally anonymous under Tim Farron (remember him, me neither) but under @joswinson they have a better leader and a better, clearer policy offer on #Brexit

One metric is to look at the number of Labour voters saying they'll vote Lib Dem../19

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson @theresa_may @joswinson The Voter Intention surveys show that about 1 in 5 (17%) of Lab voters say they intend to vote Lib Dem - that's about double the rate at the same point in the 2017 GE campaign. Not good for Mr Corbyn. /20

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson @theresa_may @joswinson So given the two years of dithering on #Brexit and the difference in the campaign leaders (the Tories can't be as bad as last time) @JoeTwyman of @DeltapollUK thinks it would "crazy" to expect a Corbyn surge a la 2017.

We'll find out soon enough/END

@chriscurtis94 @robfordmancs @ProfTimBale @jeremycorbyn @YouGov @BorisJohnson @theresa_may @joswinson @JoeTwyman @DeltapollUK A PS on a repeat of 2017 (not withstanding the above) just reading @GoodwinMJ election tracker, points out that polls are in same spots as this stage in 2017 and it's shaping up again to be a two party election.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1194556231618301952?s=20