Thread by @RARohde

THREAD) Let's talk a little bit about what a future global energy system might look like.

This chart compares the past development of the global energy system with one of the future scenarios considered by the IPCC that would limit global warming to 1.5 °C.

Firstly, everyone assumes that total energy demand is going to continue to grow.

The developing countries, e.g. China, India, Africa, will demand more energy in order to raise their standards of living.

Any model of the future energy system must accommodate that growth. 2/

Secondly, in order to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, the carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels must be reduced quickly.

Further, nearly every model assumes we will use carbon capture technology to compensate for not otherwise reducing emissions fast enough. 3/

In the proposed scenario shown above, rapid changes have already occurred by 2030. 4/

Compared to 2018

Solar: +1100%
Wind: +400%
Other Renewables (mostly biomass): +750%
Nuclear: +100%
Hydro: +40%

Natural Gas: +0%
Oil: -15%
Coal: -80%

In that scenario, carbon dioxide emissions fall 40% by 2030.

Such large gains in renewables would require a massive sustained commitment, but that may actually be easier to engineer than also getting the world to abandon 80% of its coal use by 2030. 5/

In this scenario, the world becomes carbon neutral around 2055 as the carbon dioxide emissions from the remaining uses of fossil fuels are balanced by efforts at carbon capture. 6/

Under this 1.5° C scenario, the global energy mix in 2055 would be:

2% oil
4% coal
8% hydro
11% natural gas
13% other renewables
19% solar
20% nuclear
21% wind

Oil is then ending and most transportation would be electric, with some biofuels. 7/

Continuing to 2100, this scenario gives an even larger share to renewables: 8/

0% coal
0.2% oil
3% natural gas
6% hydro
13% nuclear
15% other renewables
29% solar
34% wind

Interestingly, the scenario assumes that there is an amount of natural gas that is hard to eliminate. That's okay, as long as carbon capture works, but would become a problem without it. 9/

Notably, by 2100, this scenario isn't just using carbon capture to counter ongoing fossil fuel emissions, but is actually taking total emissions net negative in order to reduce the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere below current levels. 10/

Of course, all of this is deeply hypothetical. It involves humans making many decisions about how they choose to shape the future. There are other paths to 1.5° C.

There are also many paths where fossil fuel use continues and the Earth warms to +3 °C or more. 11/

Ultimately, the future of energy and climate will be whatever we choose to make of it. 12/12