JOBS DAY
Payrolls grew a monster 266k. (Remember, this is inflated by about Xk because of the end of the auto strike.)
Unemployment fell a tick to 3.5%.
That's a strong number. A damn strong number...
Payrolls grew a monster 266k. (Remember, this is inflated by about Xk because of the end of the auto strike.)
Unemployment fell a tick to 3.5%.
That's a strong number. A damn strong number...
In addition, payrolls for September revised up by +13k to +193, and October was revised up by +28k to +156k.
Put all that together, and it says that payrolls growth over the past three months has averaged a healthy +205k. (And this smooths through strike-related volatility.)
Put all that together, and it says that payrolls growth over the past three months has averaged a healthy +205k. (And this smooths through strike-related volatility.)
A bit more context though: Benchmark revisions suggest that the pace of job growth through much of the rest of the year were quite a bit lower than originally believed.
Wage growth continues to remain puzzlingly weak. Over the past year, hourly earnings are up only 3.1%. That's the sort of number that's unlikely to worry the Fed much (even as it continues to be puzzled by such low wage and price growth at such a low inflation rate).
The resilience of this expansion is just amazing. Since 2011, the economy has pretty consistently produced around 150-200k jobs per month. There are occasional fits and starts when we think that trend has changed, but really, it's just one long straight line. 
This history can help you interpret today's jobs number.
There are strike-related reasons this month is a bit higher. And the data are measured with error, and are usually revised.
The last 3 months shows average job growth of +205k, which is consistent with that straight line.
There are strike-related reasons this month is a bit higher. And the data are measured with error, and are usually revised.
The last 3 months shows average job growth of +205k, which is consistent with that straight line.
Workers are very much getting the smaller slice of the pumpkin pie:
This happened.
Last jobs report tweet is for students studying for their finals right now.
Unemployment rate among:
High school dropouts: 5.3%
High school grads (w/out college degrees): 3.7%
Some college or associate's degree: 2.9%
College grads: 2.0%
Keep studying. It's worth it. #teachecon
Unemployment rate among:
High school dropouts: 5.3%
High school grads (w/out college degrees): 3.7%
Some college or associate's degree: 2.9%
College grads: 2.0%
Keep studying. It's worth it. #teachecon
