Do the Tories believe they are going to win a big majority?
To answer that question, let's analyse where the Tories are focusing resources.
I've been analysing their constituency-level advertising, and they are not acting like a party expecting a large majority...
1/6
To answer that question, let's analyse where the Tories are focusing resources.
I've been analysing their constituency-level advertising, and they are not acting like a party expecting a large majority...
1/6
In the last few days, there have been two dramatic changes.
1) They've removed Boris Johnson's face and any reference to him on constituency specific ads
2) They have moved massively into defence mode
Let's explore the details...
2/6
1) They've removed Boris Johnson's face and any reference to him on constituency specific ads
2) They have moved massively into defence mode
Let's explore the details...
2/6
Here are the current constituency specific ads targeted at seats they hope to win.
A modest set of ambitions excluding many key marginal seats. Perhaps they believe other seats are already in the bag?
Maybe. But it doesn't explain the pivot to defence...
3/6
A modest set of ambitions excluding many key marginal seats. Perhaps they believe other seats are already in the bag?
Maybe. But it doesn't explain the pivot to defence...
3/6
Con have defensive ads in 43 seats challenged by Labour. These are mostly the tight marginals you expect to see.
However, there are some curious additions.
Colchester, for one. A big commuter town. Labour's 33% rail fare cut might be having an impact.
4/6
However, there are some curious additions.
Colchester, for one. A big commuter town. Labour's 33% rail fare cut might be having an impact.
4/6
Then there are the defensive ads in 19 seats challenged by the Lib Dems.
Look at the size of the Con majorities.
These are generally southern Remain-leaning seats with a lot of pissed off one-nation Tory remainers.
5/6
Look at the size of the Con majorities.
These are generally southern Remain-leaning seats with a lot of pissed off one-nation Tory remainers.
5/6
This analysis correlates with the battleground seats being visited by Boris Johnson in the below thread.
The Tories are pouring resources into their own seats.
The only sensible conclusion is that the Tories are far from confident of a majority.
END
The Tories are pouring resources into their own seats.
The only sensible conclusion is that the Tories are far from confident of a majority.
END
A few corrections! Thanks to those who highlighted them. I've been staring at spreadsheets too long...
- St Ives and Devon North are being challenged by the Lib Dems.
- Warwick is lab held challenged by Con
- Brecon is held by the Lib Dems challenged by Con
- St Ives and Devon North are being challenged by the Lib Dems.
- Warwick is lab held challenged by Con
- Brecon is held by the Lib Dems challenged by Con
In terms of Wimbledon, Stevenage and Hitchen & Harpenden, yes the LD's are the challengers.
Confirmed in all the MRP data we've seen and constituency level polling. A lot of Tory remainers in those seats going LD.
Confirmed in all the MRP data we've seen and constituency level polling. A lot of Tory remainers in those seats going LD.
