Good morning. Wondering why there is variability in head-to-head results not explained by weighting? 1 reason is name ID: Low name ID candidates ALWAYS under perform these tests bc some voters won't choose candidates they've never heard of. Which is why Amy Klobachar appears less
electable than Joe Biden & Bernie Sanders-I argue the ONLY reason why. Read my new @GENmag piece here.
gen.medium.com/electability-p…
BUT a 2nd reason is that polls that DON'T INCLUDE the party labels in the head-to-head overestimate the strength of the incumbent (Trump)
gen.medium.com/electability-p…
BUT a 2nd reason is that polls that DON'T INCLUDE the party labels in the head-to-head overestimate the strength of the incumbent (Trump)
bc when voters don't have their normal ballot box cue (party label) some low info voters will then fall back to their next cognitive shortcut-incumbency-which will be esp powerful during stable economic times. Including party labels in your head to heads are gold standard.
