@CER_EU 1. The latest polls show that Tories might not only emerge as the biggest party after elections but also have a comfortable majority in the Commons. If this is the case the UK will probably leave the EU by the end of January 31st.
@CER_EU 2. As you will know Johnson has argued that 11 months is enough to negotiate a future partnership with the EU. The EU-27 thinks it is a tall order but it is already establishing new negotiating structures to be able to start the talks as soon as possible.
@CER_EU 3. The overall idea is to preserve the greatest possible continuity in staffing and structures with the Article 50 negotiations. This is despite the fact that legal basis changes for the second phase of the talks.
@CER_EU 4. This would enable smooth opening of the talks& will help to keep the EU united. Although I think that it is very unlikely that EU's unity would crack there might be moments when member-states will have different opinions (see squabbles around no deal contingency regulations)
@CER_EU 5. So how is the EC gearing up for the talks? The Article 50 task force has been renamed and is again growing. No wonder, after all it will have to deal with three daunting tasks: implementation of the WA, negotiations of the future relationship&no deal 2.0 contingency planning.
@CER_EU 6. In any case, it is clear that reaching a comprehensive agreement covering numerous policy areas is not possible in 11 months so the EC will have to prioritise. This organigram indicates that the EU will prioritise trade and security: ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
@CER_EU 7. On security issues, Barnier, who will remain a chief negotiator, will co-operate with new High Representative and senior figures from the EEAS.
@CER_EU 8. The Council hasn't decided yet how to organise itself. Although in trade talks it draws from work of Trade Policy Committee,chaired by rotating presidency, there is growing consensus among member-states that it should retain format used for no deal contingency seminars.
@CER_EU 9. This means retaining a working party composed of 27 Brexit delegates plus sectoral experts. Although some MS might be sceptical of creating new precedents for negotiations with a third country they all appreciate the role that D. Seeuws played and want him to keep the job.
@CER_EU 10. And, what about the European Parliament which will have to approve the final deal? Here things look to be more in flux. But it seems that MEPs will keep their Brexit steering group which might evolve to include chairs of AFET and INTA committees among others.
@CER_EU 12. I also suspect that EU will maintain its transparency policy as it has played into its hands. It kept the UK on the defensive, and left the impression that it was working to an agenda set by the EU. This approach will also make it difficult for the UK to adhere to blame game.
@CER_EU 12. If you found this #thread intriguing you can read a more detailed piece on how the EU should get #Brexit done here: cer.eu/publications/a…
