,
12 tweets,
5 min read
Read on Twitter
THREAD
The next #IPCC Special Report is out, this time on climate change & land (#SRCCL). ipcc.ch/report/srccl/
There is plenty to digest over the coming days, weeks, months, years, but a few initial reactions from the SPM...
1/
The next #IPCC Special Report is out, this time on climate change & land (#SRCCL). ipcc.ch/report/srccl/
There is plenty to digest over the coming days, weeks, months, years, but a few initial reactions from the SPM...
1/
Just to set the scene, no pressure: "Land provides the principal basis for human livelihoods and well-being including the supply of food, freshwater and multiple other ecosystem services, as well as biodiversity." Land is already heavily impacted...
2/
2/
Agriculture, Forestry, & Other Land Uses (AFOLU) are a quarter of global GHG emissions (GWP100).
The natural response of land to human-induced environmental change has been to cause a sink of ~11.2GtCO₂/yr, 29% of global CO₂. This may not last with climate change.
3/
The natural response of land to human-induced environmental change has been to cause a sink of ~11.2GtCO₂/yr, 29% of global CO₂. This may not last with climate change.
3/
The emissions with the global food system are estimated to be 21-37% of total net anthropogenic GHG emissions, of comparable size to electricity, transport, or industry.
This indicates the potential individuals have to reduce emissions through dietary choices.
4/
This indicates the potential individuals have to reduce emissions through dietary choices.
4/
"The level of risk posed by climate change depends both on the level of warming and on how population, consumption, production, technological development, and land management patterns evolve".
I was surprised with the population focus...
5/
I was surprised with the population focus...
5/
"While land can make a valuable contribution to climate change mitigation ... widespread use at the scale of several millions of km2 globally could increase risks [of bad impacts]"
6/
6/
More mitigation, more risks on land!
"Future land use depends, in part, on the desired climate outcome & the portfolio of response options. All assessed modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5ºC or well below 2°C require land-based mitigation & land-use change."
7/
"Future land use depends, in part, on the desired climate outcome & the portfolio of response options. All assessed modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5ºC or well below 2°C require land-based mitigation & land-use change."
7/
The biggest question, but the hardest (& most uncomfortable)...
"Modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5ºC include more land-based mitigation than higher warming level pathways, but the impacts of climate change on land systems in these pathways are less severe."
8/
"Modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5ºC include more land-based mitigation than higher warming level pathways, but the impacts of climate change on land systems in these pathways are less severe."
8/
"Modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C & 2ºC project a 2 million km² reduction to a 12 million km² increase in forest area in 2050 relative to 2010. 3ºC pathways project lower forest areas, ranging from a 4 million km2 reduction to a 6 million km2 increase."
9/
9/
"Modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C use up to 7 million km2 for bioenergy in 2050; bioenergy land area is smaller in 2°C (0.4 to 5 million km2) and 3°C pathways (0.1 to 3 million km2)."
10/
10/
There are many options to mitigate climate change, while minimizing the impacts on land.
Dietary change will get a lot of attention, perhaps because it allows us to moralise, but there are many, many land-based mitigation options...
11/
Dietary change will get a lot of attention, perhaps because it allows us to moralise, but there are many, many land-based mitigation options...
11/
