Thread by @ChadBown

1/
Interpreting Trump's Tweets:

• Dec 15 Trump tariffs of 15% on $160 bn do NOT go on

• Sept 1 Trump tariffs of 15% on some of $110 bn cut to 7.5%

• Remaining on entirely are Trump tariffs of 25% on $250 bn (imposed at 10% in 2018, increased to 25% in June 2019)

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1205509125788098560

2/

The details of the text are what matters. Ie, what will be the deal regarding "structural changes" on

(1) China's industrial subsidies & SOEs

(2) forced technology transfer & IP protection

ie, these were statutory reasons behind Section 301 tariffs - and Trump's Trade War

3/

Trump Tweets China is making "massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods"

Does it mean Beijing just lifts SOME of its retaliatory tariffs?

If so, then we are back to where we were earlier in 2019 - NOT pre-Trade War

Text details will matter.

4/

For more history and analysis, check out our Trade War Timeline, done with the great @melinakolb

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…

@melinakolb 5/

If there is nothing in the text on how to address China's industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises, then a NEW APPROACH may be needed.

Here is the summary of my approach, with @J_A_Hillman

piie.com/blogs/trade-an…

6/

Here is the long-form version of my subsidies proposal, written with @J_A_Hillman

"WTO'ing a Resolution to the China Subsidy Problem"

(Journal of International Economic Law)

https://twitter.com/J_A_Hillman/status/1202999601894219777?s=20