1/ As people react to McConnell's vow on Fox News to collude with the White House on impeachment rules and outcome, keep in mind that the impeachment context deprives McConnell of his most trusted tools for keeping the Senate in a headlock.
2/ First-- McConnell can't block consideration of the articles all together. In other words, he can't pull a Merrick Garland. He can't ignore whatever the House sends over. McConnell has used that influence over the Senate's agenda to his and the GOP's advantage repeatedly.
3/ The Senate impeachment rules McConnell inherits all but automates a trial-- and McConnell seems to have written off revamping the rules. He doesn't have the supermajority necessary to suspend or rewrite them. And we can infer that he doesn't have 50 to nuke them.
4/ That leaves McConnell on uncomfortable ground w/ House Democrats setting the Senate's agenda. That's not the end of the world for McConnell of course. But that's not the position from which he typically starts. Why's that important?
5/ McConnell needs 51 to set any additional trial parameters beyond the ones inherited in the impeachmetn rules. And that elevates the influence of the several swing-state GOP up in 2020.
6/ But there's another angle of impeachment trial rules that puts McConnell on weaker grounds. Chief Justice Roberts is the presiding officer. I don't expect wild curve balls from the chief. But it does increase the uncertainty McC faces in trying to steer the trial.
7/ And if Roberts prefers NOT to make the ruling-- or is challenged from the chamber floor-- a Senate majority will decide. Again-- McConnell needs 51 to prevail on those votes. And there's another dimension of Senate trial rules that also could upset the 🍎🍏cart for McC....
8/ Trial rules allow any senator to offer a motion or order, requiring it only be reduced to writing and then put by the presiding officer. How much does that weaken McConnell's control of the agenda? None, if he keeps 51 on his side. But more, if motion attracts 3 skittish GOP.
9/ I suspect at the end of hte day that McConnell manages to corral his 51 for a streamlined trial. But it's not a done deal. And McC appearing on Fox to declare it suggests that he definitely does have those votes yet. It's a call to the swing-state colleagues to get on board.
10/ Sometimes partisan pressure seems to work (Exhibit A: Kavanaugh). Other times, McC's fails to command GOP majority on a highly salient issue (Exhibit B: repeal/replace O'care). That time, just enough senators revolted from his attempt to centralize control (Exhibit C:👎).
9a/ Make that ... "And McC appearing on Fox to declare it suggests that he definitely does NOT have those votes yet. It's a call to the swing-state colleagues to get on board."
11/ Bottom line: McC has less agenda control during trial compared to managing leg or executive business. Trump is unlikely to be convicted. But path to final votes could be bumpy. And as always, it's the positions lawmakers take - not outcomes that result-- that voters notice.
