So I have finally got around to releasing my post election research on why voters left Labour in the election.
Much of this has been said, and none of it should come as a shock, but I think some of the nuance is interesting.
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Much of this has been said, and none of it should come as a shock, but I think some of the nuance is interesting.
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
In the days following the election, we spoke to nearly 500 people who had voted Labour in 2017 but not in 2019.
Not the whole story (because we also need to think about the voters Lab could have lost / won) but given Labour’s vote share fell by nearly 8%, these voters were key.
Not the whole story (because we also need to think about the voters Lab could have lost / won) but given Labour’s vote share fell by nearly 8%, these voters were key.
Firstly, on ordering...
Leadership, or Jeremy Corbyn specifically, was mentioned way more people than anything else, including Brexit.
Leadership, or Jeremy Corbyn specifically, was mentioned way more people than anything else, including Brexit.
There is no way of getting around this, voters just didn't like Corbyn as much this time around as they did last time around.
In our first poll after this election just 21% of voters had a favourable view of him, compared to 46% who did so straight after the election in 2017.
In our first poll after this election just 21% of voters had a favourable view of him, compared to 46% who did so straight after the election in 2017.
Brexit came next, and it is true that twice as many Leavers left the party over Brexit than Remainers.
But still don't think that is the full picture. Lot's of people stated it was the lack of leadership on Brexit, consistent with previous research.
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
But still don't think that is the full picture. Lot's of people stated it was the lack of leadership on Brexit, consistent with previous research.
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
And finally, other policy areas were mentioned nearly as much as Brexit.
We saw the return of the kind of comments we saw after 2015 (to do with too much spending, bankrupting the country etc.) that seemed strangely absent in 2017.
We saw the return of the kind of comments we saw after 2015 (to do with too much spending, bankrupting the country etc.) that seemed strangely absent in 2017.
Remember these are all voters that voted Labour in 2017, and therefore had ALREADY voted for a Corbyn led Labour.
It makes their comments all the more interesting.
It makes their comments all the more interesting.
Just to clarify, there were still loads of voters who left because of the the promise of a 2nd referendum, and it was the bulk of those who said Brexit.
But clear the picture is a lot more complicated than that, and leadership/Corbyn was a far bigger factor.
But clear the picture is a lot more complicated than that, and leadership/Corbyn was a far bigger factor.
In my view, the three actionable takeaways would be:
1) Don't have the same leader in opposition for too long
2)Triangulation doesn't work on the biggest issue of the day, you either need to kill it as an issue, or take a hard position
1) Don't have the same leader in opposition for too long
2)Triangulation doesn't work on the biggest issue of the day, you either need to kill it as an issue, or take a hard position
3)You probably can be further to the left economically, but the policies still need be seen as deliverable and affordable
