Is it at 220 #Labour MPs - the moment at which there might well be 320 anti-Con MPs in Parliament? Maybe not. They'd have gone backwards quite a way. Johnson would hang on and use the FTPA against them to stall.
Is it at about 235 Labour MPs, at which point Lab + SNP + PC + SDLP + Green might just equal the number of Con MPs? Maybe not, cos LDs very ambivalent and DUP won't ever, ever even tacitly assist Jez into No. 10.
Is it at 250 Labour MPs, when they likely have 300 with the SNP and 305, 306 with Plaid, SDLP (?) and the Green MP? I think yes, here is where it bites. Johnson may still resist recommending Jez as his successor, however.
At 265-270, Labour with the understanding they already have with the #SNP are definitely in. So those are the winning posts for me- 250 probably, 265-270 definitely.
Governing with such a programme will be hard anyway (will blog about this at some point). Governing from deep in a minority will be very, very difficult.
But can they do it? Absolutely. They just need five or six net gains from where they stood at the end of this Parl - or in some scenarios, less than that. They could govern with c30% of the vote and 247, 248, 249 seats. Looks plausible to me. Painful for Lab, but plausible. /END
