My new conspiracy theory is that the PMF militias at the US Embassy were there with the cooperation of the Iraqi government as a calculated, escalated response to the bombing of PMF sites within their territory, without clearance from the Iraqis.
The PMF have legitimate (if problematic) status in the Iraqi government and the Iraqi government does not have the strength to get rid of them. And CJTF-OIR's stated mission is to counter ISIS, not the PMF.
Iraq was pissed that we shifted the mission to a counter-Iran/PMF strike.
Now. The protests. Here's the thing - in October the Iraqi government spent a lot of effort and killed a lot of people to keep protestors out of the neighborhood where the US Embassy is located.
Now. The protests. Here's the thing - in October the Iraqi government spent a lot of effort and killed a lot of people to keep protestors out of the neighborhood where the US Embassy is located.
But when the militias and their leaders want to approach the US Embassy? They seem to have just stepped aside and let them.
The Iraqis were not-so-gently reminding the US that they are responsible for a lot of the security that US forces currently enjoy in Iraq. That the militias and the Iraqis could probably take the embassy if they really wanted to, well before reinforcements could arrive.
The PMF "protestors" breached one gate and set a guard shack on fire, but didn't kill or seriously injure anyone. They withdrew en masse the next day.
This was a warning.
This was a warning.
Now. Why did we bomb the sites in the first place? Well, because one of the PMF militias was likely behind a rocket attack against a US/Iraqi base in Kirkuk that killed a US contractor.
The PMFs have conducted occasional harassment rocket attacks over the past few years.
The PMFs have conducted occasional harassment rocket attacks over the past few years.
These often, but not always, coincide with increased rhetoric against Iran, and a lot of the PMF groups are trained by Iran and take orders from the Iranian government.
Why does Iraq tolerate this? Well, because the PMFs helped them defeat ISIS.
Why does Iraq tolerate this? Well, because the PMFs helped them defeat ISIS.
So anyway. ISIS is not totally gone in Iraq and Syria. But the Iraqi military is stronger now. It's probably time for us to go. The longer we stay in Iraq, the more likely we get drawn into repeated escalation with the PMF forces.
And I, for one, am convinced the Embassy "protests" yesterday and today were the Iraqi government telling us in unsubtle terms that they will not protect the US forces if they get drawn into a war against the PMF/Iran on Iraqi soil.
So let's withdraw and go home.
