WAG. THE. DOG.
The recent Ukraine aid/Pentagon revelations were persuading Senate moderates to consider supporting a full impeachment trial, with witnesses -- which terrifies Trump.
So tonight, Trump just started a war with Iran.
Next up: "but you can't impeach a President in wartime!"
So tonight, Trump just started a war with Iran.
Next up: "but you can't impeach a President in wartime!"
Worried about American lives? When Iran takes its revenge (as it must), scores or hundreds of Americans will die. Remember the 1983 Beirut barracks bombings (300+ dead)? Let's pray it's not like that. Tonight, Trump condemned countless Americans to die.
Just realized not everyone's seen 1997's black comedy "Wag The Dog," starring Dustin Hoffman and Robert De Niro, about a "spin doctor and a Hollywood producer who fabricate a war... to distract voters from a presidential sex scandal.
War with Iran = distraction from impeachment.
War with Iran = distraction from impeachment.
Huh. It's almost like these two things (Iran and impeachment) are related somehow in his mind. #WagTheDog 
They're getting SO close to saying it, but they're not quite there yet...
Trump just RTed this. It's the Carl Spackler defense: "gophers are bad, so blowing up the entire golf course must be good."
Our president* is Carl Spackler.
Our president* is Carl Spackler.
Let's talk about what war with Iran would look like.
We thought war in Afghanistan was over after a few months back in 2003 ("Mission Accomplished"). We're still there.
We thought the war in Iraq would last a year at most. We didn't (prematurely) declare it over until 2011 –
1/
We thought war in Afghanistan was over after a few months back in 2003 ("Mission Accomplished"). We're still there.
We thought the war in Iraq would last a year at most. We didn't (prematurely) declare it over until 2011 –
1/
And, of course, our war in Iraq DIDN'T end in 2011. ISIS and Iranian proxies moved into our vacuum, and we're still there. (If we weren't, there would be no conflict with Iran right now, right?
2/
2/
So after nearly two decades, we still haven't managed to actually "win" our wars of choice in Afghanistan and Iraq. And not-winning has been costly:
• Our invasion of Iraq was relatively "easy": 214 killed, 606 wounded (U.S.).
Cost of doing business, right?
3/
• Our invasion of Iraq was relatively "easy": 214 killed, 606 wounded (U.S.).
Cost of doing business, right?
3/
But then, the occupation: 4,496 U.S. dead, 32,252 U.S. wounded. Half a million or so civilian deaths. Bad.
• ±$4-6 trillion costs
How would war with Iran go, compared to that?
Answer: worse.
Way worse than the other two expensive wars we already can't win.
4/
• ±$4-6 trillion costs
How would war with Iran go, compared to that?
Answer: worse.
Way worse than the other two expensive wars we already can't win.
4/
Let's compare Iraq with Iran.
Iraq in 2003: 25 million population, over 168,000 sq. mi.
Iran today: 82 million, 591,000 sq. mi.
Iraqi military size, 2003: 450,000
Iran military size: 783,000
5/
Iraq in 2003: 25 million population, over 168,000 sq. mi.
Iran today: 82 million, 591,000 sq. mi.
Iraqi military size, 2003: 450,000
Iran military size: 783,000
5/
Iraq access to sea lanes: none (ergo their invasion of Kuwait)
Iran access to sea lanes: controls one side of the two-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, where 1/3 of all oil tanker traffic IN THE WORLD passes.
What might Iran do to that oil traffic?
6/
Iran access to sea lanes: controls one side of the two-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, where 1/3 of all oil tanker traffic IN THE WORLD passes.
What might Iran do to that oil traffic?
6/
Iraq navy: n/a
Iran navy: asymmetrical but strong, consisting largely of speedboats, mines, and "the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East.” In war games, "Iran" sank an entire U.S. carrier battle group. is.gd/Dc0Gg4
7/
Iran navy: asymmetrical but strong, consisting largely of speedboats, mines, and "the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East.” In war games, "Iran" sank an entire U.S. carrier battle group. is.gd/Dc0Gg4
7/
See also "The U.S. Navy Isn’t Ready to Take On Iran" foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/30/the…
8/
8/
U.S. military planners know how difficult an Iran War would be. The invasion of Iraq involved 150,000 U.S. troops, plus tens of thousands of allies forces (that probably wouldn't help us this time around)...
9/
9/
Pentagon Iran-conflict plans call for deploying 120,000 U.S. troops to the region – and that's based on a scenario that DOESN'T involve an invasion.
In other words: they predict roughly the same number of troops as Iraq NOT to invade Iran.
10/
In other words: they predict roughly the same number of troops as Iraq NOT to invade Iran.
10/
TL;DR: war with Iran would be REALLY ugly. It would kill several tens of thousands of US troops. It would kill a million civilians. It would cost more than the entire annual federal budget – maybe several times more. ...
11/
11/
War with Iran would cause oil price shocks that could crash the world economy (while making oil-rich Putin ecstatic). It would inspire terrorist responses on U.S citizens at home and abroad for a century.
And our troops would be there forever.
12/
And our troops would be there forever.
12/
That's it. That's my (lucky 13-tweet) thread. No optimism, just warnings.
Lots more good detail about the cost of war with Iran here:
washingtonpost.com/world/2019/05/…
13/13
Lots more good detail about the cost of war with Iran here:
washingtonpost.com/world/2019/05/…
13/13
