, 3 tweets, 1 min read
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tl;dr: this isn't world war III!

It is, however, a thing that will:

- likely trigger more, not fewer, attacks on US personnel
- increase the tit-for-tat btwn US and Iran
- result in cyberattacks, attacks on oil lanes, etc
- push Iraq closer to Iran
- see blowback agains Israel
We don't have the same sort of alliance system in place as 100 years ago, so it's not like Russia's going to want to get into a shooting war over this.

But...my guess is it'll def be fine looking the other way for a bit as Iran gets some revenge
Having a v fun time of figuring what “no US boots on the ground” scenario winds up worse over time:

- Iranian retaliatory attacks on lead to US drone strikes on Iranian soil

- Iran declares that no tankers that sell oil to US can pass Strait of Hormuz, KSA attacks w/ US backing
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