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The large-scale use of negative-emission technologies:

'If we rely on these and they are not deployed or are unsuccessful at removing CO2 from the atmosphere at the levels assumed, society will be locked into a high-temperature pathway.'

1/3
science.sciencemag.org/content/354/63…
'The vast scales over which negative emissions technologies would be unleashed are difficult to grasp...

It seems obvious that lower temperatures are ethically preferable. But getting negative emissions wrong also raises risks.'

2/3
nature.com/articles/d4158…
The Trouble with Negative Emissions.

“high-stakes gamble”

“moral hazard par excellence.”

“proceed on the premise that they will not work at scale.”

Meaningful international cooperation to slash emissions is essential. We need neg. emissions too, but...newyorker.com/magazine/2017/…
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
"It would be silly to rule out 4-5C warming by end of the century in the absence of meaningful climate policy given all of the uncertainties we are AWARE of. What keeps me up at night are those we're not.."

~ Dr Michael Mann Dec 2019

Let's discuss the latest climate models.

1/
2°C by 2035- 2045 has seemed likely to me for a while now.

Some of the latest models suggest 2°C by 2040 no matter what we do as far as I can tell, but I don't know how many models say that (is this information easily available anywhere)?

Thread:


2/
This article called 'A 3C World Is Now “Business as Usual”' has people feeling that scientists say if we move away from business as usual we stay well below 3C: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…

But this seems to really clash with the new models (not to mention today's oil war fears).

3/
Read 8 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
climate change experts: a 4°C average temperature rise is likely now locked in, and could occur as early as 2049

also climate change experts: a 4°C average temperature rise looks like this:
1. Explore these threads on Earth soon becoming partially uninhabitable.

Warming is faster than expected:
👇


The planet you think you're living on no longer exists:
👇


The original article with the map:
👇
2. Not all scientists think 4°C is locked in, but as the months and years slip by with no massive, international emergency climate action, more and more see that sucking carbon out of the atmosphere is just a dream, and that an unthinkable calamity is near.
Read 5 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Remember:

🇮🇶 Iraq
🇸🇾 Syria
🇮🇷 Iran
🇱🇾 Libya
🇸🇩 Sudan
🇸🇴 Somalia
🇱🇧 Lebanon
🇦🇫 Afghanistan
🇾🇪 Yemen
🇩🇯 Djibouti
🇦🇪 UAE
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇳🇵 Nepal
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka
🇵🇰 Pakistan
🇧🇩 Bangladesh
🇮🇳 India
🇨🇳 China

will all start to become uninhabitable due to climate change by 2035.
1. The Middle East and North Africa are set to become 'so hot that human habitability is compromised' at 1.5°C - 2°C of global warming, between 2024 and 2036 according to scientists.

mpg.de/10481936/clima…
2. 'Heat waves with levels of heat and humidity that exceed what humans can survive...could begin within as little as a few decades to strike regions of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh' and eastern China (from 2017). news.mit.edu/2017/deadly-he…
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
The remaining carbon budget left to limiting warming to 1.5C is so small that its effectively impossible at this point (~235 GtCO2 for a 66% chance of avoiding; 395 for a 50% chance). So how do we create plausible scenarios to limit warming to 1.5C? More negative emissions! 1/4
The amount of negative emissions ranges widely across 1.5C scenarios in the SSP database – from 400GtCO2 to 1,600GtCO2 (10-40 years of current emissions). The use of negative emissions effectively increases the size of the remaining carbon budget by between 100% and 400%. 2/4
So while carbon budgets can be a useful tool for communication, in the case of the 1.5C target they are not particularly useful for understanding mitigation pathways! 3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD

Will Direct Air Capture grow from a few small facilities to an automotive style industry removing billions of tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere every year?

@jongertner explores at @nytclimate, & in this thread I pick up on a few nice quotes...
nytimes.com/2019/02/12/mag…
Most readers will think of Direct Air Capture (DAC) as (permanent) CO₂ Removal from the atmosphere (with underground storage), but most commercial pathways are in agriculture, food, or synthetic fields (which is CO₂ neutral not CO₂ negative). 2/
Wise words @hal_harvey, “The only way that direct air capture becomes meaningful is if we do all the other things we need to do promptly”.

Unfortunately, many think that CO₂ removal is a technology to clean the mess, no, it is only meaningful if the house is already clean. 3/
Read 14 tweets
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Fred Krupp
@FredKrupp
The window of opportunity to combat climate change has not closed. A decade of extraordinary innovation has made the greening of the global economy not only feasible but also likely. But we're going to need negative emission technologies, or NETs, to make it happen...(thread)
To stabilize the total atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other GHGs, the world will have to reach net negative emissions, or taking more GHGs out of the atmosphere than are being pumped into it. Achieving that through emission reductions alone will be extremely difficult
Getting to net negative emissions requires tech that actually removes CO2 from the atmosphere. That’s where negative emission technologies (NETs) come in. Not as a substitute for aggressive efforts to reduce GHGs but as a complement. Not a Plan B, but a critical part of Plan A
Read 9 tweets
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We_are_Q_172018
@Q172018
IT BEGAN NOT by tapping enemy insurgents’ phones or capturing their emails, but by #FollowingTheMoney

Cache of 328 NS theintercept.com/2018/08/15/nsa…

#Snowden
Aug. 15 2018, 13:00 p.m.

The Intercept's largest-ever SIDtoday release, with 328 documents

#Qanon
#FlashbackFriday
#WWG1WGA
When the #NSA discovered that #Iran may have been buying computer chips from the #UnitedStates routing them through a U.S. ally
&
Potentially supplying them to detonate #bombs against U.S. forces in Iraq & #Afghanistan
It credited so-called economic intelligence with the find.
The solution wasn't a death blow delivered by the #military but rather a new regulation on the export of certain #technologies via the #CommerceDepartment which the #NSA said would end up “saving #American & coalition lives.”

#Qanon
#DARKtoLIGHT
#WWG1WGA
#FridayThoughts
Read 136 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD (Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to rise more than 2% in 2018 (2.7%, range 1.8% to 3.7%). Emissions rose 1.6% in 2017 (leap-year adjusted) after a temporary slowdown from 2014 to 2016.

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Countries that need to slowdown:
* China, up 4.7% [2.0–7.4%]
* India, up 6.3% [4.3–8.3%]
* Others (largely developing), up 1.8% [0.5–3.0%]

Countries that need faster reductions:
* USA, up 2.5% [0.5–4.5%]
* EU, down 0.7% [-2.6–1.3%]

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
There is a broad spread in CO₂ emissions per capita, but for a chance of 1.5°C or 2°C, countries with low per capita emissions also have to reduce emissions.

Yes, developed countries have to do more, but they can’t do it alone!

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Read 10 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD

We need research, development, & eventual deployment of negative emission technologies, but relying on them at scale is an unjust and high-stakes gamble.

science.sciencemag.org/content/354/63…
The first part of this sentence means that @KevinClimate & I support the great work of @DKeithClimate & colleagues. The second part pissed many people off, particularly people working on these technologies. science.sciencemag.org/content/354/63…
We now have the first detailed engineering cost breakdown of a Direct Air Capture plant (1MtCO₂/yr), putting the levelized costs at $94 to $232 per tonne CO₂. There seems to be some excitement about this, so let's have a look sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 11 tweets

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