THREAD: West’s ‘dust bowl’ future now ‘locked in’, as world risks imminent food crisis medium.com/insurge-intell… my latest on how climate change will ravage global and regional water and food systems. A breakdown of core findings in this story follows /1
Moody's, one of the world's top global credit ratings agencies, sponsored research via its climate analytics outfit, Four Twenty Seven, concluding that past climate emissions will now 'lock in' double-digit reductions in dry season rainfall in parts of US and Europe by 2100 /2
In other words, 'dust bowl'-like conditions which devastated the American Great Plains will hit parts of the Wests in eighty years. This is *going to happen* due to carbon emissions in the atmosphere (unless we not only stop emissions now, but remove those past emissions) /3
By 2040, 72% wheat prediction is forecast to face 'extremely high water stress' due to groundwater depletion. We could hit peak groundwater withdrawals as early as 2050, which could lead some crop production in places like California and Mideast to collapse /4
Climate models show that extreme drought conditions could afflict the south of the UK, parts of northern Europe, much of southern Europe, and Australia, toward 2040. Alarmed by insane wildfires like that encompassing Australia? We will see much more like this. /5
1,700 published climate simulations examined by University of Leedssuggest that we will begin seeing negative crop yields due to climate impacts as early as 2030 /6
University of Arkansas studied 27 climate models finding that on worst-case, 60% of wheat-growing areas worldwide could see simultaneous, severe prolonged droughts from mid-century onwards /7
Even if we meet Paris Agreement carbon emission reduction targets - which currently we're not - up to 30% of global wheat producing areas could see simultaneous drought from 2041 onwards /8
Cornell University study found that six main crops in the US - maize, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, spring wheat and winter wheat - could face 20-48% yield reductions from 2050 onwards on a worst-case BAU scenario. And that's just due to heat stress, not include water stress /9
In 2012, a University of Leeds study by an IPCC lead author projected Asia would begin experiencing more intense droughts in a decade (in other words, by around 2022 onwards), increasing the risk of global food crisis. We're pretty close, and already seeing major droughts /10
Consider impacts of Australian catastrophic bushfires on farming. This year, Australia imported wheat for first time in 12 years due to extreme drought, before facing unprecedented bushfires. Here's an example of the unpredictable synergistic effects of climate impacts /11
Under a 4C warming scenario, according to a PNAS study, there's an 86 percent probability of simultaneous losses across the world’s maize breadbaskets. We are currently heading toward a 4C scenario according to conservative estimates /12
A recent Climatic Change model found that 2.5bn people will face undernourishment without accounting for climate change by 2050. Climate impacts would add 1.7bn to this - meaning half the world's population would face undernourishment in thirty years. /13
Undernourishment would affect many richer industrialised nations including the UK, US, parts of Europe and Australia at this time - not just poorer countries - according to this model /14 END
Australia's devastating, unprecedented bushfire crisis is only the beginning. The water scarcity that led to it is being intensified by climate change around the world. One of the most immediate impacts will be our global food supplies. medium.com/insurge-intell…
^^(Use above link for story if you hit medium paywall)
