When talking about #longevity & #100yearlife I am often asked whether recent UK life expectancy data undermines the need to prepare for longer lives. Here are a few comments explaining why rather than undermine the debate they actually make it more urgent
The rate at which UK life expectancy has been increasing has slowed down in recent years. This is clearly bad news although slowdowns have happened before & its too early to know if this is a long lasting shift in trend or just a temporary slowdown 
Because of this slowdown the UK gov has revised downwards life expectancy statistics. Its important to recognise this isn’t saying the current young will see lower life expectancy than past generations. Rather it’s the gains they are expected to realise that have been reduced
This downward revision is disappointing but still points to the need to prepare for longer lives. Based on 2016 projections the forecast was for 1 in 3 girls born today living to 100- now its 1 in 5. That’s still an awful lot of children having to prepare for very long lives
When UK pension was introduced (1908) life expectancy was 51. These less optimistic projections still show majority of population living into their 90s and beyond. Key message #100YearLife remains-need to adapt life course in response to having more time
This leaves unanswered the question “Why has UK life expectancy slowed down?” There are many potential candidates (rising inequality, austerity, winter flu, drug misuse, etc) but one thing is for sure–its not because the UK has reached a limit as to how long people can live
Central to #100yearlife was ‘best practice life expectancy’, defined by Oeppen&Vaupel as country at point in time with highest life expectancy at birth. From 1870 to 2010 this increases at a pretty steady increase of 2-3 years every decade, about 6-9 years each generation
Extending this chart to 2017 (with Hong Kong not Japan now defining best practice) shows best practice life expectancy continuing to increase (all data. Human Mortality Database)
Increase since 2010 works out at 1.6. years per decade. Less than long run average of 2.6 but still a significant increase given gains now come mainly from declining mortality rates at older ages
The slowdown in UK life expectancy, as with many other countries, is not mainly due to any slowdown in best practice life expectancy. The gap between the UK and US & best practice is widening. In the UK its now nearly 5 and in the US nearly 7 years.
So there is nothing inevitable about current slowdown in UK life expectancy-we haven’t reached a limit. This growing gap with best practice life expectancy makes the longevity agenda more, not less important.
A similar message emerges from widening inequality in UK life expectancy. Between 2014&2017 female life expectancy declined by 100 days for the poorest but rose 84 days for richest. The UK hasn't reached a limit but instead is not delivering longevity gains that are possible
A failure to make the most of the extra years that longer healthy lives bring is one thing. A failure to even achieve the increase in longer healthy lives that is possible is even more serious and needs to be a more important policy issue. Both aspects form the longevity agenda
Of course what is most important is healthy life expectancy and not just length of life. However exactly similar arguments can be made around UK healthy life expectancy. The problems are the same
Similar charts showing slowdown in trend GDP growth&growing gap with other nations produces significant debate& numerous policy proposals. Healthy life expectancy needs to be elevated to the same importance @Longevity_Forum @APPGLongevity @ILCUK
