By analyzing photos of debris, structural damage & blood spatter, and video of the crash, we determined that flight #PS752 had turned around and was heading back twd Tehran airport when it crashed, some 10 miles from where its transponder last pinged nytimes.com/2020/01/07/wor…
.@ntabrizy and @yousuralhlou spoke to eyewitnesses who filmed the immediate aftermath and said the plane was ablaze. working on further reporting around potential cause.
@ntabrizy @YousurAlhlou Photos confirm flight direction. Upright concrete slab: One side clean, the other splattered by blood. Also, the wall & fencing around the pitch in the distance collapsed toward camera. And debris piled against wall on far side of pitch. Tehran airport is to south. W @sskerrr 
@ntabrizy @YousurAlhlou @sskerrr @trbrtc Two videos, one geolocated by @trbrtc, and synchronized here by @sskerrr, show the small explosion mid-air before #PS752 crashed. Story here, more to come: nytimes.com/2020/01/07/wor…
@ntabrizy @YousurAlhlou @sskerrr @trbrtc Several news orgs now running with US intel positing accidental shoot down. Continuing to examine visual info.
Irrespective of cause of damage, plane was ablaze and turned back toward Tehran. Consistent with local report minutes later (below) of burning object traveling for several minutes before exploding
NEW: Video @trbrtc obtained confirms Ukrainian airliner was hit. We verified location, altitude & direction matches path of #PS752. Verification details coming.
nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vid…
nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vid…
@trbrtc 1) Location: buildings, security cabin, light tower, concrete mixer. This is where the video was filmed.
2) Path of plane: Camera points in its direction
2) Path of plane: Camera points in its direction
@trbrtc 3) Sound delay between seeing and hearing explosion in video is around 10 seconds. Very broadly matches distance from plane at that point (8,000ft altitude around 9-10,000ft over ground). See @trbrtc and also his pals at @bellingcat for more info.
We have more analysis coming on how such an attack is consistent with other visual evidence.
Updated explainer with video and #PS752 location info mapped out by @singhvianjali using fresh satellite imagery that @Maxar took today. nytimes.com/2020/01/09/vid…
@singhvianjali @Maxar Note: angle of camera tells us plane was hit around here (red). It had stopped transmitting its signal by then. One theory (unconfirmed yet): this could be 2nd of 2 missiles that intel sources say were fired. It may explain why signal is off, and why cameraman started filming.
