A few thoughts on the missile theories circulating on the crash of #PS752 near Tehran: first and foremost, neither side in the US-Iranian standoff had any incentive to attack a Ukrainian airliner flying out of Tehran... the airliner was also filled with Iranian civilians. 1/
Assuming an accidental launch, here are some issues with the theory: Tehran airport is deep inside the country, not where you would expect any uninvited USAF guests to first be detected. Iran had no known airspace penetrations that night. 2/
#PS752 had just taken off from an Iranian airport, was being given a radar control service by Iranian ATC, and was transmitting transponder ident. The SA-15 missile fragment being spread around is fired by a modern system with datalinks and transponder receive capability. 3/
The airliner was on a climb out profile at medium altitude on a flight path that puts it on the opposite of a potential threat vector. So odds of an SA-15 crew misidentifying #PS752 as hostile even if operating completely as a stand-alone system are low. 4/
Finally, given Iran was in the middle of firing a volley of ballistic missiles at US bases, their whole air defence network will have been on high alert. ie. with senior commanders supervision, assets at top readiness and as connected as possible for max situational awareness 5/
None of which is intended to say that a SAM fired in error is impossible; maybe it was somehow. However, I would suggest it’s enough to assume an accident on board until air crash investigators get a good look at the wreckage and decide otherwise. 6/
