Enough already about how Trump caused the Iranians to shoot down an airliner. He didn't. Any of you want to question my anti-Trump cred, you can f*** right off, but it's time to talk like grownups for a moment about military operations. /1
I do not yet know how Iran shot down that plane. Occam's Razor says: Incompetence, failure to spread the word, some dumbass who wasn't trained enough, poor discipline among air defense guys. It wasn't a U.S. hit on an airliner. It was a screwup during operations. /2
"Oh, but Trump made them jumpy." Yes, well, when you've deputized a terrorist scumbag to travel around the region training people in killing civilians and conducting irregular warfare via proxies, you have to think that guy might get killed. The Iranians are not new at this. /3
Eventually someone was going to ace Soleimani. Was Trump right to do it? Me, I wouldn't trust Trump's guys to order a Happy Meal and get it right. But worrying Iran is "jumpy" is like worrying if John Gotti was extra-murdery because the FBI wasn't letting him get enough sleep. /4
More to the point, no one *forced* the Iranians to undertake a ballistic missile salvo to avenge the aforementioned terrorist scumbag. (As you'll see in @TheAtlantic, I think Iran pulled it off smartly.) That was a discretionary op. Their choice. They weren't under attack. /5
If there had been waves of U.S. planes bombing the hell out of Tehran, and some guy misidentified a plane, sure. We'd have some responsibility. But an attack that was theirs to plan, time, and execute means it's *their* job not to target a plane at their own airport. /6
Trump is a sociopathic ignoramus who has no idea what he's doing. That does not mean that he somehow forced Iran into a major operation, or that it was his job to make sure that Iranians can handle high-tech SAMs without blowing up a 737 on takeoff in their own capital. /7
I want Trump impeached and removed. I want him gone in 2020 if that fails. But "Trump made the Iranians do bad stuff" is juvenile and stupid. That's not how military operations work, nor how chains of command operate in any country.
Seriously, people, get your shit together. /8x
Seriously, people, get your shit together. /8x
PS: Stop using "the fog of war." You're all using it incorrectly. An operation planned at the discretion of the regime, on their own time, with no hostilities underway, is not the "fog of war." Enough already.
