Thread by @bencasselman

The U.S. economy created 145k jobs in December. Unemployment rate at 3.5%.
nytimes.com/2020/01/10/bus…

October/November both revised down slightly, by combined 14k.

Disappointing wage number: Hourly earnings up just 3 cents. For full year, hourly earnings up 2.9%. And in break from recent patterns, wage growth weaker for non-supervisory workers.

Household survey was solid: Labor force grew by 200k+ (participation rate unchanged). Gains entirely in employment -- unemployed down a bit.

The overarching story here continues to be the steadiness of the job market. After some big swings driven by the GM strike and census hiring, we're falling right back into our range of around 150k monthly gain. Slower than last year, but solid.

Overall, the economy added 2.1 million jobs in 2019, the weakest growth since 2011. Keep in mind this will look a bit weaker once benchmark revisions are factored in next month.
nytimes.com/2019/08/21/bus…

Wage growth slowed in December. The steep drop in the year-over-year change in non-supervisory wages appears to be a quirk -- big gain in December a year ago that wasn't repeated this year. But weak gain even leaving that aside.

The manufacturing slowdown continues. The U.S. lost 12,000 factory jobs in December. (The big swings from the prior two months are tied to the G.M. strike.)
This has been a particularly big issue in the politically crucial Midwest. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

The overall goods sector is also slowing. Mining (including oil & gas) lost 9k jobs. And there are some signs of a spillover: Transportation/warehousing lost 10k jobs (though that could be a blip).

And the manufacturing diffusion index (measure of how many sub-sectors are adding/cutting jobs) continues to look weak. (The G.M. strike messed with this measure, too, but it's back down to about where it was before the strike.)

The slowdown in job, wage and hours growth, taken together, mean that total earnings (important for consumer spending) is growing more slowly. Now below 4% (nominal) year-over-year for first time in a long time.

On to the household survey! The unemployment rate stayed at 3.5%, and has been falling, which makes it very unlikely we're in a recession. (h/t @Claudia_Sahm)
nytimes.com/2019/12/12/bus…

@Claudia_Sahm More good news in the prime-age (25-54) employment rate: It rose again in December, to a cycle high (though still well below its 2000-era peak).

And a more sophisticated demographic adjustment (taking into effect the aging population) shows that the employment rate is beginning to approach its all-time high. (Although it's being driven to a substantial degree by older people working longer.)

The participation rate was unchanged in December, and has been basically flat (or drifting upward) for five-plus years now. Which is pretty good given the downward pressure from the aging population.

Picture looks very different when looking at just prime-age workers (or applying a demographic adjustment). Makes it clear that the strong job market is pulling workers into the labor force.

The gender split here is really striking: Really steep gains in participation for prime-age women, near stagnation for prime-age men.

The broadest measure of un/underemployment -- the "U-6" measure, which accounts for people who have stopped looking for work or who are stuck in part-time jobs -- fell to 6.7%, its lowest level on record. (Data only goes back to mid-'90s.)

But there are still more than 1 million Americans who have been out of work for more than 6 months, which is substantially higher than at similar times in the past. And the long-term jobless rate seems to have stopped falling.

Where are employers finding workers, with unemployment so low? From outside the labor force. Close to 3/4 of the newly employed are coming off the sidelines.