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Our post debate poll with @Ipsos is out and it has good news for WARREN. Go take a look and I'll walk you through the various measures we asked voters about.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
@Ipsos First, WARREN got the highest overall grade for her debate performance, with the other candidates fairly closely bunched together though SANDERS narrowly in 2nd. Relative to their pre-debate favorability, WARREN again does best and BIDEN the worst.
@Ipsos WARREN also made the biggest gains on how many voters were considering voting for her. BUTTIGIEG and KLOBUCHAR did decently by this metric also.
@Ipsos In terms of net favorability, WARREN saw her numbers improve, though not by as much as KLOBUCHAR, BUTTIGIEG or STEYER. However, SANDERS saw his net favorability get worse, as did BIDEN.

Thus, Warren started the night behind Sanders in net favorability and ended it ahead of him.
@Ipsos Finally, on perceived electability, no huge shifts, but KLOBUCHAR and WARREN saw their numbers improve the most.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If you wanna know whether there is still time for significant polling shifts in Iowa, the answer is basically yes. On the equivalent date in 2016, Trump had 33% of the vote in the RCP average and finished with 24% (-9%), while Rubio had 12% and finished with 23% (+11%)
Also big shifts in 2004, where Kerry & Edwards surged and Gephardt & Dean collapsed late, and in 2012, where Santorum's surge came almost entirely in the final 5-6 days.
The possibility for late swings doesn't necessarily mean that there would be a *reversal* of current trends. They could also mean that Bernie winds up with 37% of the vote or something huge, etc.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Don't quite get why Biden hasn't hit Sanders with a fairly straightforward "Bernie is too far left" set of arguments. It might work—lots of Ds say they want a more moderate nominee and/or think a moderate is more electable. It might not. But if not...
...it might still be a good test for Sanders of the sorts of arguments he'd surely face as the Democratic nominee against Trump.
p.s. "Candidates perceived as 'too far' left/right do somewhat worse electorally, other things held equal" is among the few electability claims that *does* have some empirical backing.

Although other things frequently aren't equal & Sanders has an interesting electability case.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Good pod (if I do say so myself) today on Sanders and impeachment!
I do think it's worth noting that Sanders's story is, in many respects, a comeback story. He was polling at ~15% nationally and in early states for much of the summer and fall, which is not that great a position for a candidate with 100% name recognition. But he's at ~22% now…
22% vs. 15% might not SEEM like a big difference, but it's near an inflection point. With 22% in a multi-candidate race, you can finish 1st/2nd in states and accumulate plenty of delegates. At 15% (where e.g. Warren is now) you're sort of treading water instead.
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Blank Slate
@blankslate2017
#democratic primary: It's 12/1 and just over 2 months to the IA caucuses. So what the heck is going on in this primary that's being conducted in the middle of a constitutional crisis? Well, the bottom line is that young voters are steadier in their preferences than older voters.
Taking @surveyusa polling from Aug-Nov, we see that the 18-34 vote has barely moved for Warren (-1), Pete (+1), Biden (+2) and Harris (-1). For Bernie, there was a big drop of -10 from Aug to Sept, but has since stabilized at 35, highest of any candidate in that demo.
Among 35-49 voters, since Aug, Liz is +2, Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Joe (-5) and Harris (-4). Among 50-64 voters: Warren (+2), Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Biden (-4), Harris (-5). Among 65+: Warren (-13), Pete (+7), Bernie (+2), Joe (-4), Harris (-5).
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Amanda Marcotte
@AmandaMarcotte
After the last debate, I declared that both Biden and Warren had “won”, insofar as he needed to speak less (fewer opportunities to screw up) and she needed to speak more (to get onto people’s radars). salon.com/2019/10/16/hea…
Just want to note that 538’s new post-debate polling analysis shows my gut check was right. Both Warren and Biden were successful at improving their support in the debate. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
Where I was wrong: Buttigieg’s heel turn was a turn-off for me and I thought it might hurt him. But he gained support. Watching a younger man condescend to an older woman who knows better than him still has some fans, I see.
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
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