Some folks think I’m trying to incite fear. I’m not trying—I’m a scientist. This #coronavirus #WuhanCoronovirus is serious. Over 50 million people are quarantined + case counts will go up much more. Predict @WHO will declare emergency. Let’s hope for the best, prepared for worst.
2) This piece reports on 2 Lancet articles, one of which suggests very insidious symptomless transmission. The R0 attack rate still being pinned down, but initial reports of 2.5-3.8 is higher than SARS’s 2.0-3.5. statnews.com/2020/01/24/cor…
3) the UK author’s paper stated that the “reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.” His words, not me ‘fear mongering’. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
4) I have published a lot of studies, including in NEJM, JAMA, Lancet, as someone who has worked in academia for years. And I have been a whistleblower against big pharma in JAMA. I have never ever posted about end of world stuff and don’t ever intend to. scholar.google.com/citations?user…
5) This coronavirus though, it’s R0 attack rate of 2.5 or 3.8 (still prelim) is super high. Much more people fly now than in 2003 SARS. While measles has higher R0, it has a vaccine 💉. Nobody has immunity to this new virus. Good R0 explainer:
